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氟化工行业动态分析:低库存下制冷剂惜售,等待需求旺季来临
Xiangcai Securities·2025-02-20 02:24

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The refrigerant inventory is at a low level, with prices overall fluctuating at a high level. The market is waiting for the demand peak in the air conditioning production season [5][9] - The supply side of refrigerants is constrained by quota policies, and with factors such as appliance replacement and global warming, the demand for end products like air conditioners is expected to remain stable or increase, leading to a tight supply-demand balance for refrigerants and potential price increases [9][26] Summary by Sections 1. Refrigerant Sector Data - The price of 97% wet fluorite is 3662 CNY/ton as of February 13, 2025, remaining stable compared to one month and one week prior. Supply is tight due to strict regulatory policies on mining enterprises, and the overall operating rate of mining selection plants is low [12][4] - The domestic production of household air conditioners is projected at 15.93 million units in February 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 19.8% and exports increasing by 38.6% compared to February 2024 [13][6] 2. Price Trends of Refrigerants - As of February 13, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 43500 CNY/ton, R125 at 43000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 44500 CNY/ton, with R134a showing a 1.1% increase compared to one month ago [7][21][15] - The price of R22 is 33500 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase compared to one month ago [24]