Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Insights - After the Spring Festival, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes are gradually recovering, with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing faster recovery [3][4] - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.15 million square meters last week (February 10-16), representing a year-on-year increase of 52% and a month-on-month increase of 76% [3][10] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in 13 cities was 1.27 million square meters last week, showing a year-on-year increase of 239% and a month-on-month increase of 75% [4][10] Summary by Sections New and Second-hand Housing Sales Data - New housing transaction volume in first-tier cities was 300,000 square meters (year-on-year +176%, month-on-month +75%) [3][10] - Second-hand housing transaction volume in 13 cities was 1.27 million square meters, close to the level of the same period in 2023 [4][10] Key City Transaction Data - Shanghai: Second-hand housing daily average transactions were 673 units (year-on-year +597%, month-on-month +107%), while new housing daily average transactions were 149 units (year-on-year +298%, month-on-month +27%) [5][20] - Guangzhou: New housing daily average transactions were 112 units (year-on-year +153%, month-on-month +122%), while second-hand housing transactions were 1,734 units [6][24] - Shenzhen: Second-hand housing daily average transactions were 137 units (year-on-year +235%, month-on-month +85%), while new housing daily average transactions were 69 units (year-on-year +998%, month-on-month +117%) [6][27] - Beijing: Second-hand housing daily average transactions were 418 units (year-on-year +209%, month-on-month +138%), while new housing daily average transactions were 78 units (year-on-year +266%, month-on-month +85%) [6][29] Investment Recommendations - The core goal of the "stop decline and stabilize" policy is to stabilize market volume and price, with an expected acceleration in the acquisition of existing residential properties and land, alleviating developers' financial pressures [7][33] - The report suggests focusing on leading quality developers with strong financing capabilities, land acquisition abilities, and reasonable land reserve layouts, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [7][33]
房地产行业数据点评:新房和二手房成交量逐步修复,上海、深圳恢复较快
Xiangcai Securities·2025-02-20 02:26