SUNNY OPTICAL(02382) 国元国际控股·2025-02-20 03:11Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 104.05 per share, indicating a potential upside of 20.8% from the current price of HKD 86.1 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's product structure improvement and the growth in downstream industry demand are expected to significantly enhance profitability in 2024, with projected net profit for shareholders ranging from RMB 2.639 billion to RMB 2.749 billion, representing an increase of approximately 140% to 150% compared to 2023 [3][9]. - The recovery of the global smartphone market, driven by high-end model sales and the integration of AI in hardware, is anticipated to lead to a year-on-year increase in smartphone shipments of about 6% to 7% in 2024 [4][9]. - The automotive market is also showing steady growth, particularly in the demand for electric vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems, which is expected to increase the adoption rate of in-vehicle lenses [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are RMB 390.9 billion (+22.8%), RMB 440.8 billion (+12.8%), and RMB 487.2 billion (+10.5%) respectively. Net profit for the same period is projected to be RMB 27.05 billion (+146.1%), RMB 36.53 billion (+35%), and RMB 42.14 billion (+15.3%) [5][15]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in the Hong Kong consumer electronics sector is projected at 24.6 times for 2025, while the report suggests a PE of 29 times for the company, leading to a target price of HKD 104.05 [5][15]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the average selling price of global smartphones is expected to increase by 3% in 2024, reaching USD 365, with further growth anticipated in 2025 [4][13]. - The penetration of AI applications in smartphones is projected to drive demand for higher specifications and features, which will positively impact the average selling price of components [4][13]. Product Performance - The company expects to deliver 1.324 billion smartphone lenses in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.1%. However, the delivery of smartphone camera modules is projected to decline by 5.9% [9][12]. - In the automotive sector, the company maintains a leading position with an expected shipment of 102 million vehicle lenses in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 12.7% [3][12].