Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, iQIYI (IQ US), with a target price adjusted to 2.31 [1][2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights improvements in the supply of long-form content and the stability of membership, which may lead to a recovery in subscriber numbers. The investment in micro-dramas is expected to enhance advertising revenue, contributing to marginal financial improvements. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, with a slight adjustment in the target price [2][4][18]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of 2024, iQIYI's total revenue and adjusted operating profit are projected to be 6.613 billion and 406 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline. However, advertising revenue is expected to increase by 7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by brand advertising growth from major dramas and the e-commerce peak season [6][18]. - The company anticipates a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase in membership revenue for the first quarter of 2025, while advertising revenue is expected to decline by 5% due to overlapping marketing budgets from the Spring Festival [6][20]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 29,001 million RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to be 1,841 million RMB. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are 30,753 million RMB and 32,265 million RMB in revenue, and 2,552 million RMB and 3,154 million RMB in adjusted net profit, respectively [5][28][30]. - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, with paid memberships, online advertising, and content distribution being key components [10][20]. Market Position and Trends - iQIYI maintains the largest share of long-form content viewership and is focusing on increasing the supply of top-tier dramas to enhance content stability. The rapid rollout of micro-dramas is expected to improve user acquisition and retention [6][18][20]. - The report notes that the company has a market capitalization of approximately 1.21 billion USD and has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 14.68% [4][26].
爱奇艺：长剧供给改善，关注微剧广告变现进展-20250220