NHD(002946) 东方证券·2025-02-20 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4][6][10] Core Views - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with the implementation of its first interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per 10 shares [9] - The product structure is rapidly improving, leading to better profitability, with significant growth expected in high-end products [9] - The company is committed to executing its five-year plan, aiming to double its net profit margin by 2027, supported by product upgrades and cost control [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.66, 0.78, and 0.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 17.16 yuan based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 10,006 million yuan in 2022 to 12,507 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.6% [7][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase from 24.0% in 2022 to 29.5% in 2026, indicating improved operational efficiency [7][15] Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase both the frequency and rate of dividends in 2024, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [9] - The five-year plan emphasizes reducing debt and financial costs, which will positively impact cash flow and dividend capacity in the long term [9] Product Development and Market Position - The company is experiencing double-digit revenue growth in its low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt segments, indicating strong market demand [9] - The introduction of high-end products is expected to continue driving revenue growth, with a focus on direct-to-consumer channels [9] Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 3.6% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [7][15] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 14.0% in 2022 to 18.6% in 2026, indicating effective management of shareholder equity [7][15]