房地产：对当前板块的讨论-收储近在眼前，产业拉开大幕

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The operating cash flow of the real estate industry is expected to improve significantly in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in rigid expenditures. In 2024, both the sales amount and development investment of real estate companies are projected to be 10 trillion yuan, with a notable reduction in the three major rigid expenditures: interest expenses, operational costs, and construction costs [6][7]. - The land reserve work is imminent, with some cities already disclosing their land reserve plans. This is expected to provide substantial support for cash flow, as the corresponding construction and tax expenses will also disappear once land is reserved [6][7]. - The stabilization of housing prices will significantly reduce impairment pressure and alleviate financial stress, allowing for a transition to a longer-term industry cycle in 2025. The report suggests that the market should gradually focus on long-duration assets, such as the property sector's cost-reduction logic in the AI era [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report highlights that the cash flow situation for real estate companies will improve due to a decrease in rigid expenditures, particularly construction costs, which are expected to decline as a result of reduced sales in previous years [6]. - The land reserve plans disclosed by cities like Beijing and Guangdong are anticipated to enhance cash flow further, as these reserves will eliminate associated construction and tax expenses [6][7]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can leverage long-term prospects, such as China Merchants Shekou, China New Group, and Poly Developments, while also keeping an eye on restructuring companies like CIFI Holdings [6][7]. Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies in the sector are as follows: - Poly Developments: 1.01 yuan/share for 2025 - China Merchants Shekou: 0.85 yuan/share for 2025 - China New Group: 0.99 yuan/share for 2025 - Binjiang Group: 1.10 yuan/share for 2025 All these companies are rated as "Overweight" [7].