平安证券：晨会纪要-20250221

Core Insights - The bond market is experiencing a bear flattening and a comprehensive negative carry, with changes in liquidity volume and structure. Major banks are under significant pressure on the liability side, with lending volumes hitting record lows due to deposit outflows, bond allocation pressures, and a large number of interbank certificates of deposit maturing [2][5][6] - The yield curve is flattening under negative carry conditions, with short-term rates adjusting upwards. In this environment, money market funds and wealth management products are the main buyers in a quiet secondary market, primarily from insurance, wealth management, and rural commercial banks [2][5][6] - The 10-year government bond yields and funding rates are fully inverted, indicating that the funding situation is key to current bond market pricing. However, the overall funding landscape is average, with significant supply of interest rate bonds and upcoming maturities of interbank certificates of deposit [6][7] Bond Market Analysis - The central bank's balance of liquidity injection is crucial, with recent monetary policy signals leaning towards easing. The necessity for large liquidity injections is reduced by improving financial data and a recovery in equity markets [6][7] - If the funding situation continues to tighten, there may be risks of redemption, particularly in the context of previous redemption waves driven by expectations of loose credit and tightening liquidity [7] - The strategy suggests a defensive approach in the short term, with a focus on short-term bonds over long-term ones, as credit spreads are widening and there is still a risk of declines in the short to medium term [6][7] Industry Updates - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales reached 1.015 million and 944,000 units respectively in January 2025, marking year-on-year growth of 29% and 29.4% [16] - The silicon industry is seeing stable prices for silicon wafers, with major companies maintaining prices despite some smaller firms discounting. Production rates are being adjusted in response to industry self-discipline [14][15] - Recent announcements from companies like Wens Foodstuffs Group and Jinlongyu indicate significant financial performance, with Wens reporting a net profit of 9.245 billion yuan, reversing losses from the previous year [17][19]