非银行金融：经济泡沫破裂后的日本证券业复盘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [5]. Core Insights - The Japanese securities industry has experienced increasing concentration, with the top five comprehensive securities firms dominating the market, accounting for over 40% of industry revenue and 45% of net profit as of 2023 [1][11]. - The number of foreign securities firms in Japan has significantly decreased from 52 in 2000 to just 9 by 2022, with their market share in revenue dropping from over 30% to approximately 1% [1][11]. - The industry has seen a stabilization in commission income, although the proportion of brokerage business has declined from 70.8% in 1990 to 24.6% in 2023 [3][34]. - The market has matured with a rise in institutional investors, whose share of the market increased from 4.7% in 1990 to 31.8% in 2023, while the share of individual investors decreased from 23.9% to 16.9% [3][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Japanese Securities Industry Transformation - The industry has a high concentration level, with major firms like Nomura and Daiwa leading the market [1][11]. - Total assets in the industry have shown an upward trend despite economic crises, with net assets surpassing 8.29 trillion yen in March 2024 [2][12]. - Net profit has stabilized post-2012, with ROE figures of 4.57% and 8.29% for the fiscal years 2022 and 2023 respectively [20][21]. 2. Cost Structure and Employee Dynamics - The industry's cost structure remains high, with a cost-to-income ratio of 83.6% in 2023, and management fees constituting a significant portion of total costs [28][30]. - The number of employees in the securities industry has halved since the peak in 1990, stabilizing around 85,000 by 2023 [31][32]. 3. Revenue Streams and Market Dynamics - Commission income has stabilized, with total commission income exceeding 2.7 trillion yen in 2023, but brokerage commissions have decreased significantly [34][35]. - Trading income has fluctuated but has stabilized, while financial income surged to 1.81 trillion yen in 2023, marking a 79.86% increase year-on-year [40][41]. 4. Case Studies of Differentiated Development - Daiwa Securities focuses on both domestic and international markets, enhancing its service offerings through technological innovation and strategic acquisitions [46][47]. - Rakuten Securities has leveraged its technological advancements to expand its market share, achieving a total account number exceeding 10.2 million in 2023 [64][65].