东海证券：晨会纪要-20250221

Group 1: Electronic Industry Insights - The report highlights that major foundries in mainland China, such as SMIC and Hua Hong, reported Q4 2024 earnings that met expectations, with SMIC achieving a continuous growth streak for seven consecutive quarters, and Hua Hong's Q4 performance aligning with guidance [5][6] - SMIC's Q4 2024 revenue reached $2.207 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.66%, with a gross margin of 22.6%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone SE4 and collaboration with Alibaba to provide AI features are expected to boost the supply chain and AI-related sectors, suggesting a focus on the fruit chain and AI edge-related industries [7][10] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The report indicates that January 2025 saw a significant increase in social financing, with RMB loans reaching a historical high of 5.13 trillion yuan, reflecting strong liquidity demand from enterprises [11][12] - The average weighted loan interest rate in Q4 2024 decreased by 39 basis points to 3.28%, aligning with benchmark rates, which is expected to ease pressure on bank interest margins [15][16] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for bank stocks due to tightening liquidity and fluctuating bond markets, while recommending increased attention to leading small and medium-sized banks [16] Group 3: Real Estate Market Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in January 2025, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [17][18] - Second-tier cities saw their new residential sales prices increase by 0.1% month-on-month for the first time since June 2023, while third-tier cities experienced declines in both new and second-hand residential prices [18] Group 4: Economic Policy Developments - The State Council's action plan for stabilizing foreign investment in 2025 emphasizes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, aiming to enhance foreign enterprise financing channels [20] - The report notes that the U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, which may impact related sectors and supply chains [21]