Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued a draft regulation to strengthen the management of rare earth supply, which is expected to enhance the control over rare earth prices by improving supply-side management [4][5]. - The trading price of rare earth carbonate (ROE42~42.5% content) has significantly decreased from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to 29,400 yuan/ton in February 2024, reflecting a 67% decline [6][8]. - Following the implementation of the old-for-new policy, the monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles have shown a year-on-year increase of over 40% since July 2024, leading to a recovery in rare earth demand and prices [10][14]. - The price of rare earth carbonate has risen from 29,000 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton since July 2024, marking a 20% increase and approaching the 2024 peak [10][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Changes - The MIIT has proposed a draft regulation that emphasizes the establishment of large state-backed rare earth enterprises, reinforcing the leading position of Chinese rare earth companies [4][5]. - The draft includes a dynamic adjustment mechanism for annual control indicators for rare earth mining and separation, favoring companies with better resource endowments and environmental standards [7]. Section 2: Supply and Price Trends - The government has significantly reduced the growth rate of rare earth supply indicators, with a projected increase of only 8.5% for 2024, down from 15.8% in 2023 and 24.7% in 2022 [8][9]. - The intention behind these policies is to stabilize rare earth prices amid a backdrop of declining prices due to oversupply in the global market [6][8]. Section 3: Demand Recovery - The demand for rare earths is expected to continue rising due to the ongoing growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by government incentives and technological advancements in the automotive sector [10][14]. - The long-term outlook for rare earth demand remains positive, driven by trends in electric vehicles, robotics, and the transition to an all-electric society in China [10][14].
有色金属行业：稀土供给侧管理强化 行业景气度降低回升
First Capital Securities·2025-02-21 03:46