BABA-阿里巴巴：稳健的云业务收入增长，以及电子商务业务的盈利增长前景改善。-20250221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price raised to $157.7 from$ 132.2, reflecting a 25.4% upside potential from the current price of $125.79 [1][5][26]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for Q3 FY25 reached RMB 280.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net profit were RMB 549 billion and RMB 513 billion, respectively, showing growth of 3.8% and 6.5%, also exceeding expectations [1][4]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to better-than-expected performance from the Taobao Tmall Group (T&T) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG), with T&T's revenue growing by 5.4% and CIG's revenue increasing by 13% [2][3][12]. - The report highlights improved profitability prospects for Alibaba, driven by higher acceptance of full-link tracking by merchants, faster-than-expected reduction in losses for the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and increased demand for AI inference driving cloud revenue growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - T&T Group generated RMB 1,361 billion in revenue, with CMR contributing RMB 1,008 billion, reflecting a 9.4% year-on-year growth, driven by increased online GMV and improved commission rates [2][12]. - CIG's revenue reached RMB 317 billion, a 13% increase, benefiting from unexpected growth in GPU cloud computing demand [3][15]. - AIDC's revenue was RMB 37.8 billion, up 32% year-on-year, with management expecting profitability in Q1 FY26, earlier than previously anticipated [3][14]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 have been raised by 1-3%, and non-GAAP net profit estimates have been increased by 5-9%, primarily due to better-than-expected growth in CMR and cloud computing revenues [4][23]. Valuation and Target Price - The new target price of$ 157.7 corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 15x for FY26, reflecting a valuation adjustment based on improved performance expectations across various segments [1][26]. - The valuation breakdown includes $80.7 for T&T Group,$ 11.7 for AIDC, and $33.2 for CIG, among others, indicating a comprehensive assessment of Alibaba's diverse business units [26][27].