NTES-网易：第4季度24的稳定表现；新款游戏将支持 Fiscal Year 25的营收增长。-20250221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $125.50, reflecting an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue decreasing by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.7 billion, aligning with market expectations. Operating profit increased by 13.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.8 billion, surpassing market expectations by 8% due to cautious control of sales and marketing expenses, which decreased by 33% year-on-year [1][2][3]. - For FY25, the company anticipates the launch of several new game titles to drive revenue growth, although total revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downwards by 2-3%. However, due to prudent operational expense control, the non-GAAP net income forecast for FY25-26 has been revised upwards by 2-3% [1][2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 105.3 billion in FY24 to RMB 110.7 billion in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 33.5 billion in FY24 to RMB 36.0 billion in FY25, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [4][21]. - The operating profit margin is expected to improve, with a forecast of 30.4% for FY25, up from 29.1% in FY24, driven by effective control of sales and marketing expenses [3][11]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the online gaming business at$ 11.05 billion, accounting for 88% of the total valuation. Other segments include Youdao at $1 million, Cloud Music at$ 380 million, and innovation and other businesses at $1.8 million, with net cash valued at$ 8.5 million [14][15].