蜜雪集团：蜜雪冰城IPO点评报告-20250221

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is 6.4 based on various criteria [6] Core Insights - The company, Mixue Ice City, is a leading tea beverage chain in China, operating primarily through a franchise model with an average product price of approximately 6 RMB. The revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first nine months of 2024 is projected to be 135 billion, 203 billion, and 186 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 31%, 50%, and 21%. Net profit is expected to be 20 billion, 31.4 billion, and 34.8 billion RMB, with growth rates of 4.5%, 57%, and 45.2% [2][3] Company Overview - Mixue Ice City has a total of 40,510 stores in China as of September 2024, with 57.2% located in third-tier cities and below. The company has expanded its presence to 31 provinces and regions in mainland China and has 4,792 overseas stores, with significant numbers in Indonesia and Vietnam. Revenue from outside mainland China accounts for approximately 5.1% of total revenue [3] - The company has a strong market position, with a market share of 11.3% in China, making it the largest tea beverage chain in the country. It ranks second globally in sales volume, only behind Starbucks [4] Industry Status and Outlook - The global ready-to-drink beverage market has seen significant growth, increasing from 598.9 billion USD in 2018 to 779.1 billion USD in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%. The Chinese market is projected to reach 517.5 billion RMB in 2023, growing at a rate of 22.5% [4] Strengths and Opportunities - The company has a strong cost control capability, having established its own supply chain and achieving a lower cup cost compared to competitors by 10-20%. This supports its low-price strategy [5] - The franchise system is mature and efficient, with 19,800 franchisees as of September 2024, and 42% operating multiple stores. The company provides comprehensive support for franchisees [5] - The brand has high national recognition due to its early expansion into lower-tier cities and effective marketing strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The company has attracted a prestigious lineup of cornerstone investors, including M&G, Sequoia Capital, and Hillhouse Capital, who subscribed to 45% of the shares. The IPO price is set at 202.5 HKD, with a post-IPO market capitalization of approximately 763.5 billion HKD. The expected net profit for 2024 is around 4.4 billion RMB, leading to an IPO PE ratio of 15.9x, which is slightly lower than that of listed peers [9]