爱玛科技：电动两轮车领先者，成长路径清晰可期-20250221

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Aima Technology (603529) with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Views - Aima Technology is positioned as a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory anticipated due to favorable industry policies and market dynamics. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is expected to drive significant sales growth in the industry, with an estimated 574.83 million units sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - Aima is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new avenues for long-term growth [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aima Technology, established in 1999, has evolved through multiple transformation phases, from trade to manufacturing and now to a technology-driven company focused on smart solutions for green transportation. The company has a robust manufacturing base across several provinces in China and aims to provide comprehensive mobility solutions [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly, with electric bicycles making up 88% of the total two-wheeler sales in China [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance, thereby increasing the overall market quality and concentration [36][47]. Financial Analysis - Aima's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's net profit margin is anticipated to improve, supported by the expansion of high-margin products and increased market share in both domestic and international markets [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit of 24.28 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.59%. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 19 in 2023 to 12 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2][6].