SWIREPROPERTIES-太古地产：2024F业绩疲软-20250221

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HK $18.00, while the current price is HK$ 15.28 [5][23]. Core Insights - The company's performance for 2024 is expected to be weak, with core earnings projected to decline by 10% to HK $6.5 billion, primarily due to a sluggish office market, stagnant retail sector, and high interest costs [1][2]. - Earnings are anticipated to stabilize in 2025 and slightly recover in 2026, influenced by factors such as declining rental income from mainland malls and the absence of contributions from new projects [2][11]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to fulfill its dividend growth commitment, with a projected increase of 2.9% for the full year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to decrease from HK$ 14.67 billion in 2023 to HK $13.89 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.3% [3][11]. - The company’s core profit is expected to drop from HK$ 7.29 billion in 2023 to HK $6.54 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.2% [3][11]. - The projected basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is HK$ 1.12, down from HK $1.25 in 2023 [3][11]. - The dividend per share is expected to increase from HK$ 1.05 in 2023 to HK $1.08 in 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of 7.1% to 7.5% over the forecast period [3][11]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the retail sales in Hong Kong continue to be affected by local tourism loss and changing consumer spending patterns, while the office rental market remains weak [1][2]. - The company’s properties in mainland China are also experiencing a decline in rental income due to consumer downgrading [2][19]. Share Buyback Program - The company has made progress on its HK$ 1.5 billion share buyback program, having repurchased 28.2 million shares, which is approximately 29% of the total program [21].