Xinda Securities·2025-02-22 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yancoal Australia is "Buy" [3] Core Views - Yancoal Australia achieved a coal equity production of 36.9 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with sales reaching 37.7 million tons, up 14% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal decreased due to weak demand, with a comprehensive average price of 176 AUD/ton in 2024, down 24% year-on-year [4] - The company continues to generate free cash flow while maintaining high shareholder returns, with a cash reserve of 2.46 billion AUD and a dividend payout of 687 million AUD, resulting in a dividend rate of 56% [5] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In 2024, Yancoal Australia reported a coal equity production of 36.9 million tons, with sales of 37.7 million tons, reflecting a 10% and 14% increase year-on-year respectively [2] - The production guidance for 2025 is set between 35 million to 39 million tons, maintaining the production levels of 2024 [2] Pricing and Costs - The average selling price for coal in 2024 was 176 AUD/ton, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, with specific prices for thermal coal and metallurgical coal also declining [4] - The cash operating cost for 2024 was 93 AUD/ton, with a projected range for 2025 between 89-97 AUD/ton [5] Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for Yancoal Australia in 2025 is 810 million AUD, contributing approximately 2.3 billion RMB to Yancoal Energy [6] - Revenue projections for Yancoal Australia from 2024 to 2026 are 141.9 billion, 158.4 billion, and 173.2 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 15.3 billion, 17.8 billion, and 19.8 billion RMB [7][8]