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汇丰控股:2024财年业绩点评:利润增长稳健,开启新一轮20亿美金回购计划-20250223

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, excluding the impact of notable items. The forecast for 2025 includes a net interest income of approximately 42billionfrombankingoperations,withexpectedcreditlossprovisionsrangingfrom30to40basispointsofaverageloanbalances.Thecompanyplanstomaintainacommonequitytier1capitalratiobetween1442 billion from banking operations, with expected credit loss provisions ranging from 30 to 40 basis points of average loan balances. The company plans to maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio between 14% and 14.5% and a target payout ratio of 50% for 2025. Additionally, a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion is expected to be completed before the announcement of the first quarter 2025 results [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be 65.9billion,withayearoveryeargrowthof0.365.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of -0.3%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be 22.9 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-over-year. The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at 1.24,withadividendpershareof1.24, with a dividend per share of 0.87 [5][6]. - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.56% for 2024, a decrease of 10 basis points from 2023, with net interest income of 43.7billion,down43.7 billion, down 4 billion from the previous year. The expected credit losses for 2024 are projected at 3.4billion,equivalentto36basispointsofaverageloanbalances,whileoperatingexpensesareexpectedtoincreaseby33.4 billion, equivalent to 36 basis points of average loan balances, while operating expenses are expected to increase by 3% to 33 billion [5][6].