海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 20 日 | 基础数据 | 03 月 19 日收盘价（港元） | 748.00 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 1,259.38 | | 总股本（亿股） | 1.68 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 【兴证海外零售】老铺黄金：用户破 圈，成长逻辑清晰-2024.10.30 maruiqing@xyzq.com.cn 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 港股通（沪/深） 出海空间有多大？ 投资要点： 老铺黄金是拥有高品牌溢价的新中式奢侈品牌，以工艺和文化满足了高净值人群的身份认 同感、同时兼顾保值，具有非常抢眼的社交属性，并形成了明显的大众破圈之势，同店高 速增长、开店空间大，成长逻辑清晰。中国内地开店空间远未达天花板，今年将以东南亚 为起点，出海启动第二成长曲线。 本文我们将分析全球黄金饰品消费文化的多元化、中国品牌的出海现状，并测算老铺黄金 的出海空间。 我们预计公司 24/25/26 年归母净利润 ...

海外公司深度报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 | 公司评级 | 増持 (首次) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 19 日 | 基础数据 | 03 月 | 18 | 日收盘价（港 | 7.92 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） | | | | | 总市值（亿港元） | | | 199.66 | | 总股本（亿股） | | | 25.21 | | 来源：WIND，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | | | S0190520050002 BQI321 songjingru@xyzq.com.cn S0190524010001 请注意: 陈雅雯并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 chenyawen@xyzq.com.cn 公司评级 增持（首次） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 19 日 TCL 电子(01070.HK) 港股通（沪、深） 黑电龙头，技术升级与需求共振下迎来业绩快 速增长期 7.92 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/26 相关研究 分析师：宋婧茹 电视出货量全球第二 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 2,440 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, primarily driven by new photovoltaic project acquisitions [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 791 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a decline of 12.1% year-on-year due to increased withholding tax from subsidiary dividends [5][6] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow expected to grow by 42% year-on-year to 960 million RMB in 2024 [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 5 HKD per share for 2024, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 2,440 million RMB (7.0% growth) - 2025E: 2,533 million RMB (3.8% growth) - 2026E: 2,569 million RMB (1.4% growth) - 2027E: 2,699 million RMB (5.1% growth) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 791 million RMB (-12.1% growth) - 2025E: 861 million RMB (8.9% growth) - 2026E: 903 million RMB (4.8% growth) - 2027E: 984 million RMB (9.0% growth) [4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2024: 6.3% - 2025E: 6.6% - 2026E: 6.7% - 2027E: 6.8% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.10 RMB - 2025E: 0.10 RMB - 2026E: 0.11 RMB - 2027E: 0.12 RMB [4] - **Dividend Yield**: - 2024: 5.0% - 2025E: 5.5% - 2026E: 5.9% - 2027E: 6.5% [4] Operational Highlights - The company added 860 MW of new installed capacity in 2024, bringing the total installed capacity to 4,510.5 MW, with 62% of this being grid-parity projects [5][9] - The total electricity sales volume is expected to increase by 13.8% year-on-year to 4.35 billion kWh in 2024 [12] - The company has a stable subsidy recovery situation, with 4.8 billion RMB in subsidies expected to be recovered in 2024, which is consistent with the previous year [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Insights - The company operates as a comprehensive group spanning finance and industry, focusing on both traditional financial services and industrial operations, with a strong emphasis on asset quality and management [4][17]. - The financial services segment has shown a consistent improvement in net interest margin, increasing from 1.22% in 2015 to 3.99% in 2024, despite a slowdown in asset growth [4]. - The company has expanded its overseas operations significantly, establishing 53 overseas outlets in seven markets by the end of 2024, which is expected to enhance profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest independent financing leasing financial service group in China, with total assets exceeding 360 billion yuan and serving over 30,000 clients [17]. - It has transitioned from a focus on financial services to a more integrated model that includes industrial operations [19]. Business Segmentation - The financial services segment is centered on financing leasing, with a focus on nine key industries to solidify asset quality [4]. - The industrial operations segment, particularly through its subsidiary Hongxin Jianda, has seen significant growth in equipment management and overseas expansion [4]. Competitive Advantages - The company leads the financing leasing industry with a strong asset scale and excellent management of asset-liability duration [4]. - It has diversified funding sources and has improved its asset-liability matching, which enhances financial stability [4]. Financial Performance and Investment Recommendations - The company has maintained steady revenue growth, with projected net profit growth of 2.5% in 2025, 3.4% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, reaching approximately 4.18 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain robust, with a projected dividend yield of 9.1% to 9.6% over the next three years, reflecting strong shareholder returns [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to maintain steady store expansion both domestically and internationally, with a higher growth rate overseas compared to the domestic market. Revenue is projected to grow continuously, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth. The expected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 24.9 billion, 28.8 billion, and 33.0 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 22.7%, 15.8%, and 14.3% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 4.44 billion, 5.22 billion, and 6.10 billion RMB, with growth rates of 41.4%, 17.7%, and 16.8% respectively. The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.1, 13.5, and 11.5, which are below the industry average [3]. Industry Overview - The current beverage market is experiencing growth in both supply and demand. The ready-to-drink tea market in China is expected to reach a market size of 368.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a CAGR of 16.4% from 2024 to 2028. The penetration of ready-to-drink beverages in lower-tier cities is increasing, with an expected market share of 48% in these cities by 2025 [31][24]. Company Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a leading market share in both the domestic and Southeast Asian markets, with significant gaps between it and the second-ranked competitor in terms of total GMV, cup volume, and store count. As of 2023, the company had approximately 30,300 tea drink stores and ranked first in all key metrics [38][39]. - The company adopts a price-sensitive strategy, keeping the average price of its products below 10 RMB, which enhances its competitive edge in the market. The menu includes popular items like ice cream and pearl milk tea, with prices significantly lower than competitors [44][46]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, with a total of 40,510 stores in China and 4,792 overseas as of September 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 20.6% respectively [47]. - The company has a robust supply chain, with over 60% of its raw materials sourced in-house, allowing it to maintain lower procurement costs compared to industry averages. The company has five production bases with significant unused capacity, providing room for future expansion [53][55]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 18.7 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. The revenue composition indicates that 94% comes from product sales, while 3% and 2% come from equipment sales and franchise-related services respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has a strong cost advantage and a high proportion of N-type products, with inventory levels at a low point in the industry. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company benefits from leading cost advantages in silane gas and is expected to see profit growth due to downstream demand recovery. The company is also advancing in perovskite technology and is building GW-level production lines to expand long-term capacity. The silicon material industry is currently at a cyclical low, and if policies promote capacity clearance, the company could see significant profit and valuation elasticity. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -4.62 billion, -0.33 billion, and 2.78 billion respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. For 2024, revenue is expected to drop significantly to 15.625 billion, a decrease of 53.6%, followed by a recovery to 18.54 billion in 2025 (up 18.7%) and 24.81 billion in 2026 (up 33.8%) [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.51 billion in 2023, but is expected to turn negative at -4.62 billion in 2024 and -0.33 billion in 2025, before rebounding to 2.78 billion in 2026 [3][6]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to -20.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 8.0% in 2025 and 26.1% in 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is calculated at 12.1 for 2023 and is projected to be 11.7 for 2026 [3][6]. Production and Cost Advantages - By the end of 2024, the company’s nominal production capacity for granular silicon is expected to reach 420,000 tons, with production and shipment volumes projected at 269,200 tons and 281,900 tons respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 32% and 45% [4]. - The cash cost of granular silicon production is expected to decrease to 33.52 yuan/kg in 2024, with quarterly reductions anticipated throughout the year due to lower raw material costs and ongoing technological improvements [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from potential capacity clearance in the silicon material industry, supported by government policies aimed at orderly development of the new energy sector [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group's FY25Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $18.796 billion (YoY +19.6%, QoQ +5.3%) and a net profit of $693 million (YoY +105.6%, QoQ +93%) [4][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of AI terminals and cloud infrastructure, with a positive outlook on AI-related growth [4][2] - The infrastructure solutions group (ISG) has turned profitable, with revenue of $3.938 billion (YoY +59.2%, QoQ +19.2%) [4][2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY2024 is projected at $56.864 billion, with a growth rate of -8.2%, followed by $67.739 billion in FY2025E (YoY +19.1%) [4][5] - The adjusted net profit for FY2024 is estimated at $1.011 billion, with a significant increase to $1.539 billion in FY2025E (YoY +52.3%) [4][5] - Gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 17.2% in FY2024 to 15.5% in FY2027E [4][5] Business Segments - Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) revenue reached $13.784 billion in FY25Q3, showing a YoY increase of 11.5% [4][2] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) has achieved double-digit growth for 15 consecutive quarters, with revenue of $2.257 billion in FY25Q3 (YoY +11.7%) [4][2] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI solutions among enterprise customers, which is expected to drive further growth in its services segment [4][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the full year 2024 reached HKD 31.39 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was HKD 9.06 billion, up 25.2% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 28.9%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a market share of approximately 15%, with projected revenues of HKD 33.4 billion and HKD 35.08 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.4% and 5.0% [5][7]. - The report highlights a steady growth in Q4 2024, with revenues of HKD 7.92 billion, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.13 billion, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: HKD 24.68 billion - 2024E: HKD 31.39 billion (27.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 33.4 billion (6.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 35.08 billion (5.0% YoY growth) [7] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: - 2023A: HKD 7.24 billion - 2024E: HKD 9.06 billion (25.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 9.61 billion (6.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 10.1 billion (5.0% YoY growth) [7] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: HKD 2.64 billion - 2024E: HKD 4.5 billion (70.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 5.35 billion (18.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 6.1 billion (14.1% YoY growth) [7] - **EBITDA Margin**: - 2023A: 29.3% - 2024E: 28.9% - 2025E: 28.8% - 2026E: 28.8% [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 69.4 HKD cents - 2024E: 118.5 HKD cents - 2025E: 140.8 HKD cents - 2026E: 160.6 HKD cents [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, excluding the impact of notable items. The forecast for 2025 includes a net interest income of approximately $42 billion from banking operations, with expected credit loss provisions ranging from 30 to 40 basis points of average loan balances. The company plans to maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio between 14% and 14.5% and a target payout ratio of 50% for 2025. Additionally, a share buyback plan of up to $2 billion is expected to be completed before the announcement of the first quarter 2025 results [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be $65.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of -0.3%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be $22.9 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-over-year. The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at $1.24, with a dividend per share of $0.87 [5][6]. - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.56% for 2024, a decrease of 10 basis points from 2023, with net interest income of $43.7 billion, down $4 billion from the previous year. The expected credit losses for 2024 are projected at $3.4 billion, equivalent to 36 basis points of average loan balances, while operating expenses are expected to increase by 3% to $33 billion [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market indices [6]. Core Insights - The company, SMIC, has shown steady growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time. The revenue for Q4 2024 is projected to be $2.207 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the previously indicated range of 18%-20%. This improvement is attributed to favorable product mix and structure [3][4]. - The company anticipates a strong demand for replenishment in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic substitution projects entering mass production and government subsidy policies [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue for 2023 is estimated at $6.322 billion, with projections of $8.030 billion in 2024, $9.678 billion in 2025, and $11.589 billion in 2026, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2024 to 2026 [3][4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline to $493 million in 2024, before recovering to $774 million in 2025 and $1.027 billion in 2026 [3][4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to be 19.26% in 2023, decreasing to 18.03% in 2024, before stabilizing at 19.26% in 2025 and increasing to 20.96% in 2026 [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company’s 8-inch wafer monthly production capacity is projected to be 948,000 wafers in Q4 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.5% [3][4]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products is expected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, although a decline in ASP is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased market supply [3][4]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 are estimated at $7.326 billion, with depreciation expenses expected to rise by approximately 20% [3][4].