食饮行业周报（2025年2月第3期）：节后酒企控货挺价，板块位置重于择时

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report suggests that the liquor industry is expected to transition smoothly after the Spring Festival, with a focus on strong brand momentum and reasonable growth targets for leading brands. The second quarter is anticipated to enter a low base period, making current positioning more important than timing [1][11] - The report emphasizes two main lines for investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery," recommending high-end liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][11] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector performed as expected during the Spring Festival, with regional leaders like Sujiu and Huijiu showing strong performance. High-end liquor maintained stability, and the report recommends active positioning in the current market [1][11] - The upcoming National People's Congress on March 5, 2025, is expected to catalyze policy changes that could lead to a structural bull market in liquor [1][11] - Specific recommendations include high-end liquor brands Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and regional brands such as Gujing Gongjiu and Yinjia Gongjiu [1][11] Consumer Goods Sector - The investment focus for 2025 in the consumer goods sector is summarized into two main lines: the prosperity line and the recovery line. The report highlights the potential for growth in sectors with expected upward trends, such as snacks and beverages, and emphasizes the importance of new sales channels [2][15] - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain is a key area for policy stimulus, which could lead to demand recovery and valuation improvements [2][15] - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili Group, among others, with a focus on leading companies [2][15] Market Performance - From February 14 to February 21, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.00%, with other liquor categories increasing by 2.85% and the liquor sector itself rising by 0.51% [2][21] - Specific stock performances included Huazhi Liquor (+4.42%), Shanxi Fenjiu (+1.65%), and Jinshiyuan (+1.55%), while Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.69%) and Shunxin Agriculture (-2.05%) saw declines [2][21] Valuation - As of February 21, 2025, the valuation for the food and beverage industry stands at 19.93 times, with specific valuations for liquor, beer, wine, and yellow wine at 19.19, 24.36, 90.54, and 30.00 times respectively [26]