Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to support from real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and continued manufacturing development [6] - The industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply under the expectation of production control policies and increasing industry concentration [6] - High-end steel products are anticipated to benefit from macro trends of high-quality economic development and new productive forces, particularly those with high barriers and added value [6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 0.26%, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments showing varied performance: special steel down 0.26%, long products down 1.47%, and flat products up 0.64% [4][8] - Iron ore prices fell by 1.90%, while steel consumption increased significantly, with five major steel product consumption rising by 19.77% week-on-week [4][25] Supply Data - As of February 21, the average daily pig iron output was 2.2751 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.48% [19] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.4%, down 0.19 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 26.49 percentage points to 40.1% [19] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products reached 7.944 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 131.12 thousand tons [25] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 104 thousand tons, up 71.09% week-on-week [25] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 13.14 million tons, an increase of 34.20 thousand tons week-on-week [33] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.502 million tons, up 7.44 thousand tons week-on-week [35] Price & Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3625.5 yuan/ton, up 1.29% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6773.6 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [42] - The profit for rebar produced in electric furnaces was -195.5 yuan/ton, and for blast furnaces, it was -165.11 yuan/ton, indicating a decline in profitability [48]
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Xinda Securities·2025-02-23 05:19