银行业：低利率时期银行股表现全球比较分析

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The performance of bank stocks during low interest rate periods is closely related to macroeconomic expectations and their own profitability. During crisis events that lead to significant interest rate cuts, bank performance typically declines sharply, resulting in underperformance relative to the market. However, once entering a low interest rate plateau with recovering macroeconomic expectations, bank profitability tends to improve, leading to excess returns for bank stocks. The report focuses on the performance of banks in the US, Eurozone, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan during these periods [1][17] Summary by Sections 1. Global Comparison of Bank Stock Performance in Low Interest Rate Periods - Bank stock performance varies significantly across different countries and regions due to differences in macroeconomic environments, economic development stages, and banking operating models [1][17] 2. United States: Short Low Interest Rate Cycle with Economic Recovery - The US experienced two low interest rate periods in the past 20 years, with bank stocks achieving excess returns during the recovery phases. In the crisis periods, banks faced increased bad debts and provisions, which eroded profits, leading to weaker stock performance [21][29] 3. Eurozone: Long-Term Low Interest Rates with Overall Underperformance - The Eurozone has been in a low interest rate environment since 2009, with bank stocks generally underperforming the market. However, as the interest rate environment began to improve, banks started to see some recovery in profitability and stock performance [38][45] 4. Japan: Long-Term Low Interest Rates with Periodic Outperformance - Japan's banking sector has struggled under a long-term low interest rate environment, but saw periods of outperformance during times of profitability recovery, particularly after the resolution of bad debt issues [4][38] 5. South Korea: Long-Term Low Interest Rates with Pressure on Profitability - South Korean banks have faced profitability pressures in a long-term low interest rate environment, but have begun to see improvements as the economy transitions to a higher quality growth phase [4][38] 6. Hong Kong: Strong Performance of Hang Seng Bank - Hang Seng Bank outperformed the market during the interest rate cuts due to strong fundamentals, high ROE, and dividends. However, its performance weakened in the later stages due to external economic pressures [4][38] 7. Taiwan: Significant Recovery in Profitability - Taiwan's banking sector has shown significant recovery in profitability after a long period of low interest rates, leading to slight excess returns during the recovery phase [4][38]