BABA(09988) 国信证券·2025-02-23 09:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for 3QFY25 reached 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by significant contributions from Taobao, AIDC, cloud intelligence group, and other segments [1][10] - The adjusted EBITA margin was 19.6%, with a non-GAAP net profit of 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase primarily due to changes in equity investments [1][10] - The company is focusing on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core business areas while continuing to reduce costs in non-core operations [4][23] Summary by Sections Taobao Group - Taobao Group's revenue for the quarter was 136.1 billion yuan, up 5% year-over-year, with a customer management revenue (CMR) growth of 9% driven by an increase in GMV and take rate [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao reached 44.9%, a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, indicating improved monetization strategies [14] Cloud Computing - The cloud business revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [3][16] - Alibaba Cloud holds a 33% market share in the domestic cloud service market and is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditures (CAPEX) to support AI initiatives, with future CAPEX projected to exceed the total of the past ten years [3][19] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027 have been adjusted to 997.4 billion, 1,096.6 billion, and 1,205.5 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 1.1%, 1.5%, and 2.0% respectively [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 151.3 billion, 165.7 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with adjustments of 2.0%, 2.2%, and 1.1% respectively [4][23] Market Position - Alibaba's strategy emphasizes user-centric approaches and AI-driven growth, with ongoing efforts to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [23] - The company is also exploring various AI application scenarios across its ecosystem, including e-commerce, consumer interaction, and enterprise solutions [20]