有色金属大宗金属周报：铜价或进入宽幅震荡，氧化铝价格短期止跌

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to enter a wide range of fluctuations, while alumina prices have temporarily stopped declining. The copper market is currently in a weak demand season, with fluctuations driven mainly by macroeconomic factors. The best allocation timing for the copper sector is when the fundamentals and macro factors resonate, which may require waiting until demand improves in the second quarter [5][4] - Alumina prices have stopped declining due to minor production cuts and increased export demand, but the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating potential for further price declines. The aluminum sector is expected to face a shortage this year, providing upward price potential [5] - Lithium prices are experiencing weak fluctuations as supply recovers post-holiday, with a focus on demand guidance in the upcoming peak season. The overall lithium market is expected to see a narrowing of surplus throughout the year [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic indicators show slight increases in initial jobless claims in the U.S. and a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index [12] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline of 1.52%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 26th among the Shenwan sectors [15][16] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.66, with a slight increase of 0.12 from the previous week. The PB_LF is 2.13, also showing a minor increase of 0.01 [20][21] 4. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices have decreased by 1.37% to 77,020 CNY/ton, with inventories increasing significantly [25] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 1.29% to 20,875 CNY/ton, with a notable rise in inventories [31] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have also risen, with varying inventory levels [36] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased, while nickel prices have shown mixed results, with profitability metrics reflecting the current market conditions [42] 5. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly to 76,150 CNY/ton, with mixed performance in profitability metrics for lithium production [49]