Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the overall market conditions [96]. Core Insights - The price spread of domestic key refining projects is 2546.52 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 30.31 CNY/ton (-1.18%), while the price spread of foreign key refining projects is 1098.94 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 29.74 CNY/ton (+2.78%) [2][10]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 75.49 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -0.21% [2]. - The refining sector is influenced by geopolitical events, such as the attack on the Russian Caspian Pipeline, which has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to fluctuations in oil prices [10]. - Chemical prices are showing a mixed trend, with polyethylene and polypropylene prices rising, while acrylonitrile prices have significantly decreased due to increased supply and weak demand [10][35]. - The polyester sector is experiencing a downward trend in product prices, with upstream PX, PTA, and MEG prices declining [51][54]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The attack on the Russian Caspian Pipeline has led to reduced CPC oil flow, raising concerns about supply disruptions and supporting oil prices [10]. - Domestic diesel and gasoline price spreads are weakening, while aviation fuel price spreads are strengthening [10]. - The stock price performance of six major refining companies shows mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines while others have seen slight increases [80]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices are stable with slight increases, while EVA prices are rising due to tight market conditions and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector [35]. - Acrylonitrile prices have dropped significantly due to increased supply and slow recovery in the end market [41]. - MMA prices continue to decline, with a narrowing price spread [41]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry is facing downward pressure on prices, with increased supply from new production facilities and weak demand from downstream markets [58]. - The average price of PET bottle chips is 6302.86 CNY/ton, with an average profit margin of -246.25 CNY/ton [74].
行业研究——周报:大炼化周报:聚烯烃相关产品价格价差有所改善
Xinda Securities·2025-02-23 11:05