石油石化行业周报：OPEC+考虑继续推迟增产，供应端的扰动支撑油价

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is considering further delaying production increases, which supports oil prices amid supply disruptions [9][10]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical developments, such as negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict and ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip, which have eased geopolitical risks and may negatively affect oil prices [9]. - The supply side is expected to remain tight, with OPEC+ potentially postponing planned production increases and U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports continuing to exert pressure on supply [10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - OPEC+ is contemplating delaying its planned production increases, which could alleviate supply pressures in the first half of 2025 [10]. - Recent data shows a slight decline in WTI and Brent crude oil prices, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.52% from February 14 to February 21, 2025 [9]. - Geopolitical negotiations are ongoing, which may influence oil supply dynamics and pricing [9]. Fluorochemicals - The demand for fluorinated refrigerants is driven by national subsidies, while supply remains constrained, keeping prices stable at high levels [10]. - The new subsidy policy for energy-efficient home appliances is expected to boost air conditioning consumption, with a reported 30.7% year-on-year increase in air conditioning production in February 2025 [10]. Fertilizers - The report notes strict controls on new phosphate and ammonium production capacity in China, which may enhance market conditions as spring planting demand rises [10]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend, with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions expected to drive growth [10].