轻工制造周观点：造纸涨价，出口稳增，家居国补，跨境、婴护、新型烟草、宠物等结构成长，AI+消费崛起

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights price increases in the paper industry, stable export growth, and structural growth in sectors such as cross-border e-commerce, baby care, new tobacco, and pet products, alongside the rise of AI in consumer sectors [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Sections Paper Industry - In March, pulp prices continued to rise, with Suzano announcing price increases of $20 in Asia and $60 in Europe. Domestic paper companies are expected to raise prices for white card and cultural paper steadily, while packaging paper prices may fluctuate. The demand for specialty paper is growing, and prices are expected to increase slightly during peak seasons. The EU's preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese decorative paper are expected to allow Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages through pricing adjustments [2][3] Exports - Orders remain stable, with varying impacts from tariffs. Companies like 嘉益股份 and 哈尔斯 are expected to see significant order growth, while others with strong overseas production capacities may benefit from order transfers. Cross-border businesses are projected to continue high growth, with some companies expected to achieve around 30% growth in Q1 2025 [3][4] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border business is expected to maintain high growth, with leading sellers likely to see performance improvements. Companies like 赛维时代 and 卡罗特 are projected to achieve over 20% growth in Q1 2025, with some exceeding 30%. The report emphasizes the importance of global supply chain capabilities and product strengths in driving growth [4][5] New Tobacco - The report notes that the U.S. is the largest nicotine market outside of China, with significant growth opportunities for companies like 菲莫国际. The market share for various nicotine products is detailed, indicating a strong potential for HNB products in the U.S. market [5] Consumer Products - Companies like 润本股份 are expected to see growth in offline channels, while new product launches are anticipated to drive sales. The report highlights the competitive advantages of products targeting youth and the increasing functionality of lenses in the eyewear market [6] Home Furnishings - The report anticipates stable growth for home furnishing companies, with specific revenue growth projections for brands like 欧派家居 and 索菲亚. The impact of national subsidies is expected to support growth despite high base pressures [7] Packaging - The packaging sector is projected to benefit from ongoing national subsidies and new product launches, particularly in the smartphone market. Companies like 裕同科技 are expected to gain from these trends [8] Jewelry - 老铺黄金 is forecasted to achieve significant profit growth, supported by brand positioning and new store openings. The report suggests that the brand's strategy will drive sales despite market challenges [9]