高盛交易台：美股为什么跌

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging week for US equities, with a focus on momentum wobbles, retail pressure, and poor economic data, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][2]. Core Insights - US stocks experienced a decline influenced by long-term inflation expectations and new coronavirus headlines, with specific sectors like Bond Proxies, GLP-1, and China ADRs outperforming, while Bitcoin Sensitive Equities, Memes, and AI Software faced significant losses [1][2]. - Hedge funds (HFs) have been net sellers for eight consecutive weeks, particularly in TMT stocks, indicating a significant unwinding of risk, comparable to levels seen in July of the previous year [3][4]. - The retail sector has been underperforming, with the GS Retailer Basket down 5% year-to-date, reflecting a broader trend of consumer spending volatility [13][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - US equities faced downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors, with a notable net selling activity from hedge funds, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [3][4]. - The S&P 500 implied move for the upcoming week is projected at 1.27%, with key macroeconomic indicators such as US Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE scheduled for release [4][5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector outperformed during the week, driven by a defensive rotation amidst weaker consumer data, although some companies faced significant challenges [13][15]. - Retailers are experiencing a slow start to Q1, with notable declines in consumer discretionary stocks, which have been net sold for nine consecutive weeks [3][14]. Futures and Derivatives - Positioning in Russell 2K futures has significantly decreased year-to-date, with expectations of additional supply if negative price momentum continues [6][7]. - The report highlights an oversupply of dealer gamma in derivatives, with expectations of volatility stabilizing at a local floor [8]. ETFs and Investment Trends - Recent activity in China Technology ETFs has shown a shift towards profit-taking, while there has been a rotation into gold as a safe haven amid tariff uncertainties [9][10]. - The report notes that retail euphoria may create opportunities as the US tax season approaches, but risks are present if retail investors need to liquidate positions to cover capital gains [11][12].