公用事业2025年第8周周报（20250223）：煤价超预期下跌IEA预测2025天然气供需紧平衡

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping below 720 CNY/ton, marking a 23.4% year-on-year decrease from 939 CNY/ton in 2024 [5][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a tight balance in global natural gas supply and demand for 2025, driven by slower growth in liquefaction capacity and increasing demand [6][19] Summary by Sections Coal Market Analysis - Since mid-November 2024, coal prices have been on a downward trend, with a notable increase in coal inventory at northern ports, which rose by 42% year-on-year as of February 17, 2025, reaching historical highs [5][12] - The report anticipates that the demand for thermal coal will remain resilient despite the impact of new energy installations, as the growth in electricity consumption is expected to match the new renewable energy generation [14][15] Natural Gas Market Analysis - The IEA forecasts a 1.9% increase in global natural gas consumption in 2025, reaching 4.292 trillion cubic meters, while production is expected to grow by 2.17% to 4.281 trillion cubic meters [20][21] - Key factors influencing the natural gas market include the projected 5% growth in liquefaction capacity in North America and reduced gas supplies from Russia to Europe, which may tighten global gas balances [20][25] Investment Opportunities - In the context of falling coal prices, the report suggests that the thermal power sector may present a buying opportunity, recommending companies such as Huadian International and Shenneng Co., Ltd. for their strong earnings elasticity [18]