农林牧渔行业周报：1月官方能繁存栏下降，关注饲料原料价格波动

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in the breeding stock of pigs as of January, with a counter-seasonal increase in weight. The latest pig price has dropped to 14.72 yuan/kg, while the average weight at slaughter has increased to 125.68 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 594 yuan/head. Short-term replenishment may support pig prices, but overall supply is expected to remain high, leading to a weak price outlook for the year [4][21]. - In the poultry sector, the report notes a general performance in terminal demand, with the price of chicken seedlings at 2.2 yuan/chick, unchanged month-on-month but down 48.84% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens is 5.76 yuan/kg, up 1.05% month-on-month but down 27.09% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the concentration of industry profits towards upstream sources [6][22]. - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to see a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth. The report indicates that fish prices have risen while feed prices have fallen, leading to improved profitability in aquaculture for 2024 [7][24]. - The pet food market is experiencing a decline in sales, with a 7% year-on-year drop in sales during the first 30 days of the Lunar New Year. However, certain brands like Pei Ti have shown significant growth, suggesting a potential for recovery in the pet food sector [10][12][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The breeding stock of sows is at 40.62 million heads, exceeding the normal level of 39 million heads, indicating a potential overcapacity [21][43]. - The report suggests a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, recommending investment in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][21]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a recovery in production post-breeding suspension, with a focus on the profitability of parent stock and the concentration of profits towards upstream sources [6][22]. - Key investment targets include leading imported breeding stock companies and full-chain leaders like Shengnong Development [22]. 3. Feed Industry - The report indicates a recovery in aquaculture profitability and recommends Hai Da Group due to its stable cash flow and overseas growth potential [7][24]. - The report highlights the end of the capital expansion phase for leading companies, which are now entering a phase of stable cash flow [8][24]. 4. Pet Industry - The report shows a decline in pet food sales, with specific brands experiencing varied performance. It suggests focusing on brands that are showing growth potential [10][12][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance in the pet food sector, particularly for companies like Guibao and Zhongpeng [12][27].