贵金属双周报：地缘局势缓和不改再通胀逻辑持续演绎，金价维持高位震荡

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The gold price remains high and fluctuates due to persistent inflation logic, despite easing geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Recent economic data indicates a "stagflation" characteristic, with January's US CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation remains cautious, with no immediate rate changes anticipated, which supports gold prices [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical discussions between Russia and the US may limit upward momentum for gold prices [3][4] - The report highlights that the global demand for gold is expected to reach a historical high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven by strong central bank purchases [4] Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 2.07% to $2,934.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 2.17% to 684.44 yuan per gram [11][12] - London spot silver rose by 2.03% to $32.93 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 0.58% to 8,102 yuan per kilogram [11][12] - The holding volume of Shanghai gold increased by 2.97% to 366,700 contracts, and Shanghai silver's holding volume surged by 18.54% to 778,000 contracts [11][12] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report notes that the January PPI also exceeded expectations, rising 0.4% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, driven by food and energy prices [3][4] - The upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and core PCE price index, are crucial for market sentiment [3][4] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into the trading volumes and positions in the COMEX and SHFE markets, indicating a robust interest in gold and silver [29][30] Price Differentials and Basis - The gold price differential between domestic and international markets is reported at 4.53 yuan per gram, while the silver price differential is 535.58 yuan per kilogram [36] - The international gold basis is -$15.45 per ounce, indicating a decrease, while the domestic gold basis is -1.22 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase [41]