策略周观点：牛市宏大叙事产生的过程

Group 1 - The report outlines a three-step process for the emergence of a grand narrative during bull markets, starting with the correction of previous bear market misconceptions and the recognition of policy space in China's economy [5][6][9] - The second step involves a focus on specific industries that are performing well, leading to a concentration of market hotspots and a shift in investor attention towards industry narratives, particularly since October 2024 [5][6][10] - The third step anticipates a broader improvement across multiple industries, prompting investors to elevate their understanding of these changes to macroeconomic factors such as labor quality, education, and institutional advantages, suggesting that many industries could leverage these macro advantages [5][6][12] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that the first wave of recovery in A-shares typically follows a policy turning point, which can significantly alter annual economic trends, as seen in previous years like 2008 and 2012 [6][9] - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for A-shares has not fallen below historical ranges despite a prolonged decline, contrasting with Japan's market behavior in the early 1990s [7][9] - The report emphasizes that the influx of retail investor funds is a critical factor in sustaining the grand narrative, with the potential for a significant shift in market sentiment as these funds continue to flow into the stock market [13][15] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market is in the early stages of the second wave of a bull market, with expectations of seasonal influences affecting initial performance [16][17] - It notes that the market has shown a divergence in performance among different sectors, with technology and machinery leading gains while sectors like real estate and media have lagged [23][24] - The report provides strategic recommendations for asset allocation, favoring sectors such as internet stocks in Hong Kong and financials, while advising caution in real estate until further data is available [20][21]