中国经济高频观察（2025年2月第3周）：复工提速

Economic Recovery - The recovery rate of industrial production continues to improve, with construction sites resuming operations at a faster pace, particularly in sectors like automotive and home appliances[5] - During the Spring Festival travel period, the return home passenger flow increased by 8.4% year-on-year, while the resumption of work passenger flow grew by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating a slower recovery compared to pre-festival levels[5] Construction and Infrastructure - As of February 20, 2025, the resumption rates for construction sites were 47.7%, labor utilization at 49.7%, and funding availability at 43.6%, all showing a year-on-year decline[5] - Cement shipments decreased by 25.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure cement supply down by 9.3%, although the decline is narrowing[5] Industrial Production - Daily average pig iron production and apparent demand for five major steel products showed slight year-on-year growth, while cement production capacity utilization rebounded, turning from negative to positive growth year-on-year[5] - Chemical products like pure soda and methanol saw year-on-year growth, while asphalt production declined compared to the previous week[5] Real Estate Market - Second-hand home sales outperformed new home sales, with new home average daily transaction area down by 20.0% year-on-year, while second-hand homes increased by 39.3% year-on-year[5] - The average daily transaction area of second-hand homes accounted for 56.4% of total transactions, up by 4.5 percentage points from late January[5] Domestic Demand - Retail sales in the passenger car market grew by 11% year-on-year from February 1-16, with expectations for a 13.6% increase for the entire month[5] - Daily box office revenue for films reached approximately 335 million yuan, significantly higher than the 104 million yuan during the same period last year[5] External Demand - Export container shipping rates fell by 4.9%, with most major routes experiencing a decline in freight rates[5] - International cargo flights increased by 18.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery supported by the temporary suspension of the U.S. small package tax exemption policy[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[5]