BABA(09988) 华安证券·2025-02-24 04:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's FY25Q3 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 280.2 billion yuan (yoy +8%), slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 1% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 62.1 billion yuan (yoy +4%, margin 22%) and 51.1 billion yuan (yoy +6%, margin 18%), respectively, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2.7% and 12.2% [4] - The cloud business returned to double-digit growth, with revenue of 31.7 billion yuan (yoy +13%) and adjusted EBITA of 3.14 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - FY25Q3 revenue was 280.2 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 8%, slightly above expectations [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was 62.1 billion yuan, with a margin of 22%, and adjusted net profit was 51.1 billion yuan, with a margin of 18% [4] Segment Performance - Taobao Group revenue was 136.1 billion yuan (yoy +5%), exceeding expectations by 3.3% [5] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group revenue was 37.8 billion yuan (yoy +32%), exceeding expectations by 4.4% [5] - Local Life Group revenue was 16.99 billion yuan (yoy +12%), slightly below expectations by 1.2% [5] - Cainiao Group revenue was 28.2 billion yuan (yoy -1%), below expectations by 9.9% [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue was 31.7 billion yuan (yoy +13%), exceeding expectations by 3.1% [5] - Digital Entertainment Group revenue was 5.4 billion yuan (yoy +8%), exceeding expectations by 1.1% [5] - Other revenue was 53.1 billion yuan (yoy +13%), exceeding expectations by 7.1% [5] Growth Drivers - Taobao accelerated growth with revenue of 136.1 billion yuan, driven by GMV and take rate improvements [6] - The AIDC business is expected to achieve quarterly profitability next fiscal year [6] - The cloud business saw a resurgence with double-digit growth, and AI-related products maintained triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are 971.13 billion yuan, 983.82 billion yuan, and 1,088.52 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 3.2%, 1.3%, and 10.6% respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 159.96 billion yuan, 172.17 billion yuan, and 195.93 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 1.6%, 7.6%, and 13.8% respectively [8]