宏观点评：“9·24”以来经济复苏情况如何

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5%, with a notable improvement in Q4 2024 at 5.4%[3] - Industrial and service sectors are expanding, with industrial production remaining stable in early 2025[3][11] Export and Industrial Production - Export activities are supported by resilient overseas demand, with port container throughput increasing by 7.5% year-on-year in early 2025[3][13] - The PMI for January 2025 decreased from 50.1% to 49.1%, but industrial production showed signs of recovery in February[3][11] Service Sector Expansion - The service sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with a 170% increase in average daily trading volume in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter[4][17] - Domestic tourism during the Spring Festival saw 5.01 billion trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year[4][19] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment remains weak despite a net financing of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan in early 2025, with some funds allocated for local debt replacement[4][25] - High-frequency data indicates low operational rates for asphalt and cement, reflecting ongoing investment challenges[4][28] Real Estate Market - The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in January 2025 decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a significant 49.6% month-on-month decline[5][30] - New housing transactions in key cities showed a 27% decline compared to the same period in 2024[5][30] Consumer Spending and Subsidies - Consumer demand is weakening, with retail sales of passenger vehicles down 7% year-on-year as of mid-February 2025[5][35] - January 2025 saw a 12% decline in online retail sales of home appliances, indicating a need for increased consumer subsidies[5][36] Credit Creation - New RMB loans in January 2025 totaled 5.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan, but overall credit growth remains moderate[6][40] - The M2 money supply growth rate decreased to 7% in January 2025, indicating a need for stronger credit expansion[6][42] Price Trends - CPI growth was 0.5% in January 2025, while PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, reflecting weak inflationary pressures[6][46] - Commodity prices, including coal and steel, have been on a downward trend since October 2024, further indicating economic challenges[6][47]