兼评各省2025年财政预算目标：当前财政运行情况、问题及2025年展望

Revenue Performance - General public budget revenue in 2024 was 21,970.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but below the initial target of 3.3%, resulting in a shortfall of 424.8 billion CNY[5] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, significantly lower than the initial target of 0.1%, with a shortfall of 871.2 billion CNY[6] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in 2024 was 28,461.2 billion CNY, growing by 3.6% year-on-year but still below the target of 4.0%, resulting in a shortfall of 87.8 billion CNY[10] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 0.2% year-on-year, far below the initial target of 18.6%, with a shortfall of 187 billion CNY[11] Fiscal Deficits - The overall fiscal revenue fell short of the initial budget by approximately 1.3 trillion CNY, with a record high deficit of 10.4 trillion CNY between actual revenue and expenditure[14] - Debt service expenditure reached a historical high of 1,287.7 billion CNY, accounting for 4.5% of total fiscal expenditure, indicating significant pressure on fiscal sustainability[26] Economic Challenges - Tax revenue declined by 3.4% year-on-year, with major tax categories like domestic VAT and corporate income tax decreasing by 3.8% and 0.5%, respectively[17] - Non-tax revenue surged by 25.4%, reaching a historical high of 20.36% of total revenue, raising concerns about its sustainability and impact on the business environment[20] 2025 Outlook - Fiscal revenue is expected to remain under pressure due to weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, with a projected budget deficit exceeding 14 trillion CNY[29] - Many provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue growth targets for 2025, with an average expected growth of 2.9% for general public budgets, reflecting economic pressures[30]