科特估系列专题（四）：阿里Capex重回扩张期确认产业趋势，科技股或将进入拥挤度“失效期”

Core Insights - Alibaba's capital expenditure plan significantly exceeds expectations, with projected investments in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years expected to surpass the total of the past decade [2][7] - The Chinese AI industry is likely to enter a large-scale expansion phase, driven by increased capital expenditure and the competitive landscape established by models like DeepSeek [8][25] - The recent meeting on private enterprises, attended by the General Secretary, is expected to lead to rapid policy implementation, particularly focusing on technology and expanding domestic demand [13][15] Summary by Sections Alibaba's Capital Expenditure - Alibaba's CEO stated that the primary goal in AI strategy is achieving AGI, which could potentially impact or replace about 50% of current GDP components [7] - The company anticipates a clear and substantial demand for AI infrastructure, committing to investments that will exceed the last ten years combined [7] Market Trends and Policy Implications - Historical data shows that after the 2018 private enterprise meeting, the overall market trend was upward, with the CSI Technology Index rising by 42.51% [15] - The current policy environment is expected to support the revitalization of entrepreneurial spirit among private enterprises, particularly in technology sectors [15][19] Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the current phase of the AI industry may have entered an "overcrowding failure period," where high investment levels do not lead to immediate corrections in stock prices [25][20] - The report suggests that the valuation of Chinese technology stocks is undergoing a significant reassessment, with global capital increasingly betting on these assets [8][25]