产业经济周观点：TMT板块延续高低切

Group 1 - The report indicates that Trump's economic policies are shifting towards government efficiency reforms, with weak immigration policies leading to reduced fiscal spending and pressure on service sector inflation [2][3] - The reduction in U.S. fiscal spending and the expansion of tariffs are expected to alleviate fiscal pressure and stimulate growth in the real estate and manufacturing sectors, although this may impact the existing globalized framework [3][4] - China's domestic economic policy strength is anticipated to gradually manifest, with a focus on whether demand in the construction industry can continue to improve, leading to potential volatility in expectations for economic recovery and RMB appreciation [3][9] Group 2 - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, European economic recovery could become a significant variable for global economic dynamics, positively influencing global manufacturing, particularly in the renewable energy sector [3] - Chinese manufacturing is noted to have a global competitive advantage, which is expected to rise, allowing China to effectively capture manufacturing demand driven by trends in AI applications [3][4] - The report highlights that the risk associated with dollar assets is increasing, with structural risks in U.S. equities being greater than systemic risks, particularly due to high valuations influenced by AI and global capital flows [4] Group 3 - The TMT sector is expected to continue its high-low rotation, with short-term focus on semiconductor equipment and military industries, while mid-term attention is on the potential weakening of market risk appetite [4] - Long-term prospects are favorable for the AI application chain and related Chinese advantages, as well as for leading companies in advanced semiconductors and traditional manufacturing [4] - The report notes significant movements in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 6.03% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 4.02% [14]