国君2025春季策略|“稀土小强”难放量,“两新”强化反转逻辑——缅甸稀土专题报告

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the rare earth industry [1] Core Insights - Myanmar's rare earth production has rapidly increased, becoming China's largest source of imports, but political instability and resource depletion risks may constrain supply [1] - The report anticipates a steady rise in rare earth prices due to strengthened demand from domestic "two new" policies, indicating the potential for a second phase of reversal in the rare earth sector [1][3] - The supply from Myanmar is expected to face significant constraints, with projections indicating a 42% and 30% decline in imports for 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [2] Summary by Sections - Myanmar's Rare Earth Production: Myanmar has become the world's third-largest rare earth producer in 2023, accounting for 11% of global production and 45% of China's rare earth imports. The import volume from Myanmar is projected to reach 32,000 tons in 2024, which is 1.6 times the domestic heavy rare earth quota [1] - Supply Constraints: The ongoing internal conflict in Myanmar has led to a significant drop in rare earth imports, with December 2023 imports falling to around 300 tons. If disruptions continue, the supply in 2025 may be lower than expected, with an estimated import of 24,000 tons, representing a substantial decrease from previous years [2] - Demand and Price Outlook: The report highlights that the demand for rare earth materials, particularly from the electric vehicle and air conditioning sectors, is expected to grow at rates of 33% and 7% respectively by 2025. This demand, coupled with potential supply shortages, is likely to enhance price elasticity for rare earth materials [3]