国君电子|国内AI开支步入爆发期,国产算力迎发展机遇

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the domestic AI industry, with a significant increase in capital expenditure expected from major players like Alibaba, suggesting a bullish investment rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba's capital expenditure for Q4 2024 has increased by 80% to 31.8 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic AI sector, driven by advancements in domestic large models and surging demand in inference applications [1]. - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of major overseas cloud providers is projected to grow at a CAGR of 50.6% from 2023 to 2025, with total spending expected to exceed 300 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a global trend towards increased investment in AI infrastructure [1]. - The launch of the Deepseek R1 model demonstrates that domestic large models can achieve performance comparable to leading overseas models, which is expected to accelerate the development of domestic AI models and drive capital expenditure growth in the AI industry [1][2]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Trends - Alibaba's capital expenditure is set to exceed the total of the past decade within the next three years, indicating a strong commitment to cloud and AI infrastructure [1]. - The report notes that the Deepseek R1 has spurred a rapid increase in inference demand, with public cloud providers like Huawei actively adapting to this new model [2]. Market Opportunities - The report emphasizes that the uncertainty surrounding overseas computing power supply, particularly from companies like NVIDIA, presents a significant opportunity for domestic computing power chips, such as Huawei's Ascend 910C, which has demonstrated competitive performance [2]. - The increasing demand for inference capabilities is expected to drive rapid growth in the AI computing chip market, as local enterprises accelerate the deployment of models like R1 in sectors such as finance and healthcare [2][3].