全球经济：美国优先投资政策的可能影响

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Investment Policy - Trump's "America First" investment policy emphasizes national security, increasing restrictions on cross-border investments in sensitive industries, which may weaken international investor confidence[1] - The policy is expected to reduce U.S. cross-border investment activities with non-allied countries, slightly lowering U.S. GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026[3] - The restrictions may lead to a decrease in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), which have historically accounted for 1%-1.5% of GDP over the past decade[1] Group 2: Effects on China - The policy will negatively impact China’s cross-border investment activities, potentially reducing China's GDP growth, particularly in the outward-oriented sectors, with FDI and securities investment flows between China and the U.S. averaging 0.5%-1% of GDP from 2014 to 2023[3] - China is likely to increase domestic demand support and accelerate technological self-reliance, while enhancing trade and investment ties with non-U.S. regions[1] - Despite short-term negative impacts on market confidence, China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% for the year, with Q4 2024 expected to rise to 5.4%[3]