华源证券：华源晨会精粹-20250225

Investment Highlights - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH) has increased its dividend payout ratio to no less than 60% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, up from 50% in the previous plan, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3][12][13] - The company has shown a clear upward trend in dividend payout ratios from 15.2% in 2019 to 50% in 2023, with projected dividend yields of 6.6%, 8.5%, and 9.4% for 2024-2026 based on profit forecasts [3][13][15] - The company is expected to benefit from high infrastructure investment in Sichuan, with plans to exceed 280 billion yuan in transportation investment in 2025, supported by its major shareholder, Shudao Group [14][15] Real Estate Market Insights - The second-hand housing market in key cities has shown signs of recovery, with a 54% year-on-year increase in transaction volume during the Spring Festival period compared to 2024, indicating a potential "small spring" in the real estate sector [4][19] - The construction sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with the opening and resumption of work on construction sites improving, although still lagging behind previous years [18][20] Coal and Power Sector Analysis - Coal prices have fallen significantly, with the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 719 yuan per ton, a 23.4% decrease year-on-year, leading to a potential buying opportunity for thermal power stocks [23][24] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a tight balance in global natural gas supply and demand for 2025, with a projected consumption increase of 1.9% [26][27] Agricultural Sector Overview - The number of breeding sows in China has decreased, with the latest pig price at 14.72 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for price stabilization due to reduced supply [30][31] - The poultry market is facing challenges, with chicken prices showing a decline, but there is potential for recovery in the upstream breeding sector [32][36] Technology and Investment Opportunities - The North Exchange has successfully launched its second batch of satellite network deployments, indicating growth potential in the low-altitude economy, projected to reach 1.39 trillion yuan by 2029 [9][10] - The technology sector in China continues to show strength, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 6.0%, suggesting favorable conditions for investment in Chinese tech assets [40][41]