高盛：小米-上调目标价，重申买入评级

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights Xiaomi's strong positioning to enhance its AI technology capabilities and expand its "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem, aiming to drive sales and improve its market position in the long term [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-26E have been raised by 4%-7%, primarily due to a more optimistic outlook for AIoT and EV segments, with projected revenue CAGRs of 17% and 99% respectively from 2024-27E [10][19] - The target price has been increased to HK$58 from HK$38, reflecting a more favorable growth outlook and strong performance in the AIoT and EV segments [20][22] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: - 2023: Rmb 270,970.2 million - 2024E: Rmb 362,259.2 million - 2025E: Rmb 470,957.6 million - 2026E: Rmb 606,969.4 million [5][16] - EPS estimates have been revised upward for 2025-26E, with new projections of Rmb 1.37 and Rmb 2.02 respectively, indicating a significant profit growth trajectory [10][19] - The report anticipates a 30% year-over-year group revenue growth in 2025E, aligning with management guidance [10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Xiaomi is expected to leverage its native AI interface, Xiaoai, embedded in Xiaomi HyperOS, to enhance customer acquisition and interaction within its hardware and software IoT ecosystem [2] - The company is projected to have approximately 900 million connected AIoT devices by 2024E, positioning it as a leader in the global AIoT ecosystem [2] Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation ratios for Xiaomi: - P/E (2025E): 33.5 - P/B (2025E): 5.5 - EV/EBITDA (2025E): 24.5 [12][16] - The report indicates a significant increase in the valuation of Xiaomi's core business, with a 57% higher 12-month forward valuation at Rmb 921 billion [20][21] Growth Projections - The report forecasts a 26% revenue CAGR for Xiaomi from 2024-27E, indicating one of the fastest growth rates among major Asian TMT companies [21] - The net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% during the same period, driven by strong performance in the AIoT and EV segments [32]