高盛：中国房地产：出现了一些复苏的迹象，政策的有效执行是支撑该行业触底的关键

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for selected stocks in the China property sector, specifically mentioning COLI, CRL, Greentown, and Longfor, which are currently trading at the lower end of their trading range, reflecting an average pricing in of a 15-20% decline in property prices from current levels [1][7]. Core Insights - The report indicates that there are signs of a bottoming industry outlook for 2025, with the need for better policy execution to support market stabilization and increase household confidence [1][8]. - It highlights that the physical markets and developers' liquidity are showing incremental positive developments, which could lead to a recovery in the sector [1][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective execution of previously announced government policies, including funding support and inventory reduction measures, to enhance market stability [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that high-tier cities are likely to continue outperforming in transaction volumes, with a 20%+ improvement in QTD transaction volume compared to pre-easing levels [16][18]. - The average price index for 70 cities showed slight declines of -0.1% in primary and -0.3% in secondary markets month-over-month [22][22]. Policy Execution - Key policies include a "whitelist program" with Rmb5.6 trillion in funding support approved by mid-January 2025, and an inventory reduction initiative that has begun to yield results at the local level [8][10]. - The report anticipates further details on funding support and potential RRR cuts, which could lead to lower mortgage rates and stimulate market activity [8][10]. Developer Liquidity - Incremental positive developments in developer liquidity are noted, including Greentown's issuance of US$350 million in senior notes, marking a recovery in investor confidence [40]. - Vanke is expected to benefit from a new government liquidity injection plan to address its funding gap, which includes local government mobilization of Rmb20 billion to acquire unsold projects [40]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The report suggests that evidence of market stabilization will support higher valuations for the covered developers in the coming months [1][7]. - The sentiment in the primary and secondary markets is improving, with positive year-over-year trends in new project launches observed in February 2025 [16][18].