高盛：中国电池正极材料领域：磷酸铁锂（LFP）有望迎来周期性复苏

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yuneng with a Buy rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company within the LFP cathode sector [3][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a cyclical recovery in China's LFP cathode sector, forecasting utilization to increase from 71% in 2024E to 86% in 2026E, driven by a robust demand outlook and disciplined capacity expansion [2][19]. - LFP cathode demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 34% from 2024E to 2026E, supported by strong demand from both Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and New Energy Vehicles (NEV) [12][22]. - The report emphasizes Yuneng's strong market position, with a projected EPS CAGR of approximately 187% from 2024E to 2026E, benefiting from volume growth and margin expansion [4][14]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - The demand for LFP cathodes is expected to grow significantly, with NEV demand growing at a CAGR of 27% and BESS demand at 44% from 2024E to 2026E [22][24]. - The cost advantages of LFP batteries over NCM batteries are projected to expand to approximately 30% in 2025E, enhancing LFP's market penetration [21][35]. Supply Dynamics - Capacity growth for LFP cathodes is estimated to decelerate to a CAGR of 19% from 2024E to 2026E, following a substantial 75% reduction in CAPEX from the peak in 2Q23 [39][42]. - The report notes that the LFP cathode sector is experiencing disciplined capacity expansion, which is expected to lag behind the demand growth [39][44]. Company-Specific Insights - Yuneng is positioned to capture significant volume growth and margin recovery, with a market share of approximately 34% globally [3][14]. - The report forecasts Yuneng's unit gross profit to increase from Rmb2.4k/t in 2024E to Rmb6.0k/t in 2026E, reflecting strong operational efficiency [14]. Inventory and Utilization Trends - The report anticipates a rebound in LFP cathode utilization to 86% in 2026E, supported by a positive demand outlook and potential inventory cycle tailwinds [50]. - Early signs of positive inventory momentum are noted, with lithium carbonate prices appearing to reach a bottom, which could further support utilization rates [50].