摩根大通-中国股票策略-买入表现滞后的板块

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating in lagging sectors, particularly in Property and Healthcare, while advising to trim extremely overbought AI proxies [2][3][26]. Core Insights - The MXCN index has performed well with a year-to-date increase of 15%, driven by factors such as AI advancements and better-than-expected consumption during the Lunar New Year [3][19]. - The consensus FTM EPS estimate for MXCN has been revised up by 2.5% since September 2024, indicating positive sentiment in the market [3][17]. - Property shares are expected to see tactical upside as stabilization continues, with potential new policy support if sales weaken further [3][26]. - Healthcare is anticipated to show structural upside, particularly in medtech and biotech, with better revenue guidance expected for 2025 [7][28]. Summary by Sector Property - The property sector has been underperforming but shows signs of recovery, with new home prices in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities rising by 0.1% month-on-month in January 2025 [6][26]. - Positive developments include increased mortgage demand and a recovery in transactions post-policy relaxations [6][26]. - Preferred picks in this sector include COLI, CR Land, and BEKE [6][26]. Healthcare - The healthcare sector has been the second worst performing MSCI sector but is expected to see positive revenue guidance for 2025, particularly in medtech with a projected 10-15% year-on-year growth [7][28]. - Leading biotech firms are expected to turn EBITDA positive in 2025, with strong sales growth anticipated [7][28]. - Preferred picks include Mindray and Akeso [7][28]. Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector, which has been the worst performing value sector since the first half of 2021, may benefit from property stabilization [8][26]. - Selected firms in the food and beverage segment have reported net profit growth due to effective distribution channel optimization [8][26]. - Preferred picks include Anta and Tsingtao Brewery [8][26]. AI and Technology - AI-related stocks have become short-term overbought, with several companies reaching a 14-day RSI reading near or over 80 [9][26]. - The report highlights the importance of underlying inventory and new product cycles for tech hardware and semiconductors [9][26]. - The software segment is facing challenges due to delayed IT spending from corporate clients, leading to decreased contract sales [9][26]. Financials - The financial sector is seeing strong returns and volume in bonds and equities, with banks projecting around 10% net profit growth for 2024 [29][28]. - Investment gains among insurance and brokers have been solid, supported by tech-enabled risk management [29][28]. Industrials - The industrials sector is experiencing tight supply-demand conditions, particularly in marine and transport infrastructure, driven by a replacement cycle and strong demand from the US [30][28]. - Consensus earnings for major players in this sector have risen significantly for 2024/25 [30][28].