摩根大通闭门黄金 20250331 摘要 黄金与美国 10 年期实际收益率之间关系如何演变？ Q&A 黄金价格在 1971 年美国放弃金本位制后为何达到 4,000 美元？其价格变化的主 要驱动因素是什么？ 1971 年，美国总统尼克松关闭了美国的黄金窗口，结束了布雷顿森林体系，使 美元与黄金脱钩。这一举措使得以美元计价的黄金价格开始自由波动。自此之 后，黄金作为一种避险资产，其价值主要源于对地缘政治风险和通胀的保护能 力，而非实用性或现金流产生能力。2008 年全球金融危机期间，黄金价格首次 突破 1,000 美元大关；2020 年 8 月，在新冠疫情引发经济不确定性的背景下， 黄金价格达到 2000 美元大关。此后不到五年的时间里，黄金价格突破 3,000 美 • 2008 年金融危机和 2020 年疫情期间，黄金价格分别突破 1,000 美元和 2000 美元，此后迅速突破 3,000 美元和 4,000 美元，表明黄金作为避险资 产的价值日益凸显，尤其在地缘政治风险和通胀压力下。 • 2000 年至 2021 年，实际收益率是黄金定价的主要驱动因素，但自 2022 年 以来，尽管美国 10 年期国债收 ...

March 28, 2025 10:48 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Foundation 观点：更多关税即将到来，政 策宽松能在多大程度上抵消关 税的影响？ 贸易紧张局势将给本已放缓的经济增长带来进一步的下行风 险。我们预计货币和财政政策将有进一步放松。但由于财政 空间有限，货币宽松政策将发挥重要作用。总体而言，政策 宽松不足以抵消增长受到的损害。 要点 在本报告中，我们评估了该地区各经济体在应对贸易紧张局势拖累增长时，所拥 有的财政空间，并强调了为什么我们预计本轮周期中货币宽松政策将在支持增长 方面发挥重要作用。 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the cont ...

March 28, 2025 06:01 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Can 1Q Strength Last? 1Q growth looks solid at 5.4%, fueled by tech investment and policy-front loading. But it remains uneven, as industrial profit margins, wage growth and housing prices slipped. Momentum could soften from 2Q amid tariff risks and global trade conditions. We see limited new policy action until 2H. Bear argument – Growth is set to soften from 2Q amid tariffs… While China's economy has likely turned more resilient to US tariff shock ...

Global Markets Strategy 26 March 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy 2Q25 outlook: one step back, two steps forward Equity Macro Research Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asi ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 March 2025 Asian Tech Key takeaways from call on Tech Restrictions and Tariffs We hosted a callwith expertsto discuss key tech regulations and tariffswhich could impactindustries and countriesinAsia.We summarize our key takeawaysfromthe call here: Technology and Telecoms Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Ranjan Sharma, CFA AC (65) 6882-1303 ranj ...

亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：寻求对等⸺下一步是 什么？ 除了增加从美国进口产品外，增加防御支出和对中国征收关 税还可能被提出作为修复贸易平衡、以达成贸易协议的潜在 要求。我们探讨其他亚洲经济体是否能够满足这些需求，以 及这意味着什么。 March 26, 2025 10:07 AM GMT 要点 在本报告中，我们探讨了三个问题⸺（1）亚洲是否能够通过增加商品购买来减 少对美国的贸易顺差，（2）是否有增加防御开支的财政空间，以及（3）亚洲经 济体会否对从中国进口的产品征收相应的关税。 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any ...

March 20, 2025 05:43 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America GTC: Financial analyst Q&A and other thoughts from the show. We summarize our final takeaways and observations from GTC following the analyst Q&A session, with us coming away more positive on the trajectory from here; OW , Top Pick in semis. We wrote about specific announcements last night (GTC Keynote Highlights very strong roadmap & strong growth potential), but here we highlight a few thoughts following another day of meetings and events. 1) Manage ...

Weekly Warm-up: A Rotation Back to the US Led by Mag 7? Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year. US Equity Strategy | North America M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532 Andrew B Pauker Equity Strategist Andrew ...

China's DeepSeek Moment TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | March 2025 For a government seeking to reinvigorate its economy and infuse its youth with optimism, DeepSeek's emergence is more than just an artificial intelligence (AI) milestone – it's a timely symbol of China's ambition to claim a leadership role in the tech revolution. DeepSeek's breakthrough will likely inspire a new generation of Chinese talent at a time of renewed nationalism. With China's strengths in consumer t ...

We raise our 2025 GDP forecast by 50bps to 4.5% on a stronger-than-expected starting point and solid capex momentum, aligning with consensus. That said, we still expect growth to soften from 2Q onwards amid tariff impact and reactive policy measures, and remain below consensus on nominal GDP. Debate on whether growth recovery can sustain and broaden out has been on the rise. Indeed, stimulus measures on local governments and consumption have started to filter through, leading to green shoots. We think a fur ...