摩根士丹利科技访谈：Joe Moore 谈英伟达融资与竞争格 局、博通与联发科对比、AMD 人工智能与 CPU 前景、美 光与闪迪产业链调研及偏好 20260131 摘要 英伟达计划未来 6-7 年向 OpenAI 投资 1,000 亿美元，每千兆瓦产能投 入 100 亿美元，旨在支持 AI 生态系统发展并实现其万亿美元营收目标， 目前未承担显著信用风险，仅与 CoreWeave 有少量信用义务。 市场担忧 OpenAI 数据乐观，但即使实际数据仅达到预期两倍，仍对英 伟达未来业绩超预期抱有信心。英伟达向所有客户供货，市场地位稳固， OpenAI 若能更清晰地阐述其收入和盈利模式，将有助于改善市场对其 的看法。 谷歌内部采用混合模式，在需要灵活性的场景使用可编程架构，功能固 定场景采用 TPU。Anthropic 大量使用英伟达产品并保持合作，所有已 发布模型均基于 Hopper 架构，Blackwell 架构部署较晚。 短期内，AI 芯片市场并非零和博弈，未来 12 个月需求依然强劲，各厂 商均可将产能转化为销量。英伟达市场份额约为 85%，预计将保持稳定， 行业增长受限于生态系统支撑能力，各公司增长率在 ...

摩根士丹利科技论坛：Erik Woodring 评希捷（STX） 与西部数据（WDC）预期调整及估值重估；苹果 （AAPL）毛利率与 AI 路线图争议；戴尔 （DELL）、NetApp（NTAP）、慧与（HPE）、惠普 （HPQ）面临利润率压力 20260129 摘要 硬盘市场受益于数据存储需求增长，主要厂商面临供应短缺，掌握定价 权，客户需求缺乏弹性，电信行业发展亦带来长期利好，当前周期长于 往常，利润率达历史最高水平。 硬盘企业营收有望超出预期 5%，毛利率环比提升 200 个基点以上，主 要得益于工厂利用率提升和'爆发式定价'收益，但需警惕未来存储周 期反转时被迫降价风险。 西部数据 2027 财年每股收益乐观预期可达 17-18 美元，给予 18 倍估 值，股价仍有 35%-40%上涨空间；希捷 2027 财年每股收益乐观预期 约 24 美元，给予 19 倍估值，目标价可达 425-450 美元。 大宗商品价格飙升刺激短期采购，但可能导致设备单价大幅上涨，面临 需求萎缩和资产利用率下降风险，或在今年下半年出现需求断崖，长期 来看，工作负载转移到云端亦构成隐忧。 Q&A 能否谈谈当前硬盘行业的背景和主要 ...

摩根士丹利基金：2026 年度投资策略会：多元视角，洞察 260128 发言人 05:19 尊敬的各位来宾，亲爱的合作伙伴们，大家下午好。欢迎来到摩根士丹利基金 2026 年度投资策略会， 我是主持人贺梦涵。如果用一个词来形容 2025 年，我想可能是机会。2025 年全球股市普遍上涨，A 股也走出了近几年的一个最强行情，很多人都说这是遍地都是投资机会的一年，所以如何能够抓住机会 就变得非常重要。 发言人 05:44 为了能够帮助我们的客户更好地抓住投资机会，2025 年摩根士丹利基金做了非常多的客户服务活动。 在刚才的开场视频当中其实也有所展示。这一年我们充分联动了摩根士丹利，全球顶尖资源，云集了超 过 60 位大咖，举办了五十多场市场洞察策略会。比如说在三月份的时候，人形机器人大热的时候，我 们就洞悉了客户的需求，通过一场策略会为客户解读了人形机器人的产业趋势。七月份的时候，在债市 经历大幅回调的时候，我们也及时策划为客户提供了债市的应对之法。十五五规划出台之后，我们也在 11 月份举办了策略会，为客户解读十五五规划以及四中全会。除此之外，我们也在持续不断的向客户 输出包括像摩根士丹利试点等在内的热点主题 ...

2025 年，摩根士丹利基金通过一系列客户服务活动帮助客户抓住投资机会。 全年共举办了超过 50 场市场洞察策略会，邀请了 60 多位行业专家参与。例如， 在三月份人形机器人热潮时，我们及时策划了相关策略会，解读产业趋势；七 月份债市大幅回调时，为客户提供应对之法；11 月十五五规划出台后，举办策 略会解读政策。此外，还持续向客户输出热点主题报告，如摩根士丹利试点等。 摩根士丹利基金在投研建设和产品业绩方面取得了哪些成就？ 摩根士丹利基金在投研建设、业绩打磨、产品布局和客户服务方面均取得显著 成绩。我们优化了考核体系，更加重视长期考核和投资风格的一致性，并吸纳 多元背景的投研人才。在权益方面，通过高频联动国内外团队，打造具有长期 竞争优势的主题产品，例如聚焦 AI 产业链的大摩数字经济混合基金，在 2024 未来资本市场将更加健康，有望实现"慢牛"行情，即价值更高质量更 高的稳定增长，保险、财富管理等领域由于其可持续性和低风险特征， 将获得更高估值，资本开支上存在局部过热现象。 中国在人工智能（AI）领域具有人才储备、基础设施建设以及数据资源 等多方面优势，通过改进算法，提高效率，实现了以较少投入获得较高 产 ...

摩根士丹利科技谈：Brian Nowak 前瞻 META、GOOGL、AMZN、DASH 与 RDDT 互联网公 司财报 20260127 摘要 Meta 需明确阐述如何将长期模型产品化，尤其在商业消息、智能代理、 扩散模型、元 AI 及可穿戴设备等领域，以提升广告业务并开拓新的收入 增长点，市场关注其支出结构，但公司业务状况实则更健康，增长空间 更大。 谷歌核心搜索业务需实现显著超预期增长（如突破 15%达到 16%- 17%），才能推动估值模型调整并带动股价上涨。谷歌云预计全年增长 50%，但若搜索业务未因 AI 实现超预期增长，或资本支出增加而搜索营 收增长不足，可能下调 2027 年每股收益预期。 谷歌云（GCP）预计全年增长 50%左右，整个谷歌云业务板块全年增速 有望超过 40%，甚至可能达到 45%，关键驱动因素是需求强劲和客户 覆盖广度。最大风险并非需求，而是产能及数据中心投入使用速度。 AWS 第四季度基准预期同比增长 22%。Anthropic 使用定制 Renoir 芯 片，已部署百万片规模用于训练，AWS 未来几个季度或保持较快增速， 具体幅度取决于项目推进和芯片部署规模。OpenAI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Boston Scientific (BSX) in the large-cap category, while Insulet (PODD) is highlighted as a top pick among small to mid-cap companies [15][17][18]. Core Insights - The healthcare sector is projected to experience revenue growth of approximately 6% in 2026, driven by healthy volumes and demographic trends [15]. - The report indicates that the MedTech sector is currently facing challenges with muted new money interest, as investor focus has shifted towards technology and AI stocks [11]. - Despite some negative pre-announcements from companies, there are positive indicators from firms like ISRG and BSX, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the sector [9][10]. Summary by Sections Healthcare Sector Snapshot - Healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 have shown a slight increase of 0.5% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's 1.4% [7]. - Key performers within the healthcare sector include Labs (+8.6%), CROs (+6.3%), and Lifescience Tools (+5.2%), while Biotech (-0.7%) and Large Pharma (-1.8%) lag behind [7]. Key Takeaways from the Conference - The conference revealed a mix of pre-announcements, with ISRG and DXCM performing better than expected, while ATEC and ENOV faced challenges [9]. - There is a notable interest in surgical robotics and diabetes management, with companies like MDT and BSX leading in these areas [12]. Sector Outlook for 2026 - The report forecasts EPS growth of around 7% for 2026, emphasizing the importance of high-quality companies with strong earnings visibility [15]. - The anticipated growth in the MedTech sector is supported by ongoing innovation and favorable demographic trends, despite potential budget constraints in healthcare [15]. Top Picks - The report identifies ISRG and BSX as top large-cap picks, citing their strong growth potential and innovative product pipelines [15][17]. - Among small to mid-cap companies, Insulet (PODD) is highlighted for its robust sales growth and market position in diabetes management [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade in the rating for Datadog to "Buy" due to improvements in core business after excluding OpenAI operations and the expected acceleration in growth from cloud migration and digital transformation projects [13][14]. Core Insights - The AI sector is rapidly evolving, with Anthropic's Claude Co-Work showcasing the capabilities of general intelligence agents in handling information work, marking a shift from prompt-driven interfaces to task-oriented models [1][3]. - Despite the enthusiasm for generative AI, the overall IT budget growth expectations have not significantly changed, with hardware, communication, and IT services spending expected to slow down [1][6]. - Snowflake is projected to have the highest growth acceleration expectations in 2026 among surveyed vendors, alongside Microsoft, indicating a strong position in the cloud data warehouse market [8]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Market Trends - The transition from prompt-driven interfaces to task-oriented models is highlighted by the capabilities demonstrated by Claude Co-Work [1][3]. - CIO surveys indicate that generative AI remains a top priority, but overall IT budget growth expectations have not improved significantly, with a slight downward adjustment noted [6]. Company Performances - Snowflake is leading in growth expectations for 2026, with a continued rise in the adoption of third-party cloud data warehouses [8]. - Datadog's core business is improving, with a notable increase in observability spending expected to become a core priority in enterprise budgets starting in 2026 [13][14]. - Atlassian is noted for its resilience and growth opportunities, with an expected 20% continuous revenue growth [21]. Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive dynamics between Microsoft and Anthropic, with CIOs favoring Microsoft 365 Copilot for its comprehensive features [5]. - Akamai's collaboration with NVIDIA aims to leverage its distributed edge network for enhanced inference capabilities, which is expected to drive revenue growth [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upward adjustment of the U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.4% for 2026, primarily driven by improved trade contributions, AI-related business spending, and potential fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to be delayed until the second half of 2026 due to strong economic growth in 2026, enhanced momentum by the end of 2025, and a stable labor market reducing the likelihood of cuts based on employment factors [1][3]. - If the labor market remains robust and inflation does not effectively slow down, the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates throughout 2026 or even cancel any planned cuts [5]. - The tariff transmission effect is anticipated to be completed by the end of Q1, which will alleviate the growth rate of commodity prices and overall inflation pressure, thereby enhancing purchasing power for middle- and low-income households [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - The upward revision of the U.S. economic growth forecast is attributed to significantly improved economic activity data, particularly strong consumer spending in the services sector, increased trade contributions, and support from AI-related business expenditures and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [2]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is influenced by stronger economic growth projections for 2026 and improved labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December [3][5]. - There is a 10% probability that the Federal Reserve's policy response function may change, which could lead to more significant policy adjustments, including additional rate cuts, depending on a Supreme Court ruling regarding presidential authority over board members [7]. Inflation and Consumer Impact - Evidence suggests significant upward risks to inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later in the year [4]. - The tariff transmission effect is expected to slow commodity price growth and alleviate inflation pressure, improving purchasing power for middle- and low-income households, although overheating consumption could hinder inflation reduction [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a tactical bullish stance for 2026, with a focus on both bullish and bearish factors [2][20]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is improving, characterized by strong earnings growth and a de-escalation of trade tensions [2][16]. - Consumer cash reserves have increased significantly, with the top 40% of income earners holding more cash than at the end of 2019, contributing to higher retail spending [3][6]. - The labor market shows signs of stability, although there are concerns about rising unemployment rates and potential economic slowdowns [10][12]. - Earnings growth is projected to continue, with expectations of a 7.2% revenue increase and a 15.0% rise in earnings per share for the fiscal year 2026 [11][13]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The overall economic outlook is positive, with strong earnings growth and a reduction in trade tensions expected to support market performance [2][16]. Consumer Insights - Adjusted for inflation, the cash reserves of the top 40% of income earners have increased, leading to a significant rise in retail spending, which is a key driver of GDP growth [3][6]. Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is stabilizing, with a slight increase in unemployment rates and a potential for economic slowdown if costs cannot be passed on to consumers [10][12]. Earnings Outlook - Projections for Q4 2025 indicate a revenue growth of 7.6% and an 8.3% increase in earnings per share, with a net profit margin of 12.8% [11][13]. Trade Relations - Improvements in trade relations, particularly between the U.S. and China, are expected to positively impact the market, with a decrease in effective tariff rates [16][35]. Technical Factors - The report highlights that stock buybacks are expected to reach approximately $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, indicating strong corporate confidence [19][20]. Investment Themes - The report identifies key investment themes, including technology, media, and communications (TMT), as well as international markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America [48].

Investment Rating - The report provides a forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index at 22.0x as of December 31, 2025, indicating a valuation that is above the historical average [20][21]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has shown significant performance dispersion, particularly among the "Magnificent 7" companies, which have outperformed the broader index [39]. - The report highlights the importance of earnings growth, with projected total EPS growth of 11.5% for 2025, driven by revenue growth and profit margin improvements [30]. - The report discusses the impact of inflation and interest rates on market dynamics, noting that the Federal Reserve's policies will continue to influence investment strategies [30][31]. Summary by Sections Equities - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,846 by the end of 2025, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.0x, reflecting a strong market outlook [17][20]. - The "Magnificent 7" companies, including major tech firms, have significantly contributed to the S&P 500's performance, with returns indexed to 100 on January 1, 2021, showing a price return of 275% [38][39]. Economy - The report indicates that consumer spending is a major driver of GDP growth, contributing 68% to nominal GDP, with a projected growth rate of 4.3% for 3Q25 [66]. - Labor market dynamics are highlighted, with nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth showing positive trends, although the unemployment rate is projected to be around 5.5% [68][69]. Fixed Income - The fixed income market is characterized by a yield curve that reflects current economic conditions, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2% as of December 31, 2025 [20][21]. - The report notes that fixed income yields are expected to influence equity valuations, particularly in a rising interest rate environment [30]. Alternatives - The report discusses the growth of the private credit industry and the increasing importance of alternative investments in portfolio diversification [16][56]. - Infrastructure investment needs are highlighted, indicating a growing opportunity for investors in this sector [16]. Consumer Insights - Consumer confidence remains a critical factor, with the report indicating that consumer finances are stable, although debt service ratios are being monitored closely [96]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer spending patterns, particularly among different income cohorts, to gauge market potential [93].