Investment Rating - The stock rating for JD Health International Inc. is Underweight [5] - The industry view is Attractive [5] Core Insights - JD Health International Inc. maintained its 2025 targets despite a strong performance in Q1 2025, aiming for mid-teens revenue growth and flat operating profit [3][8] - The company expects over 20% growth in drug sales, mid-teens growth in nutritional products, and high single-digit growth in medical devices for the full year 2025 [3] - The gross profit margin (GPM) is anticipated to improve due to supply chain management efficiencies and increased advertising income, particularly in nutritional products [3] - JD Health's strategic focus includes enhancing B2C drug sales, especially for originator drugs, which currently represent approximately 30% of total drug sales [4] - The company plans to increase offline investments through greenfield projects rather than large-scale mergers and acquisitions [4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, JD Health reported revenue of RMB 16.6 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.5%, which was 11% above consensus estimates [8] - The adjusted operating profit grew by 73% year-over-year to RMB 1.31 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 7.9%, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year [8] - Adjusted net profit rose by 47.7% year-over-year to RMB 1.77 billion, with an adjusted net margin of 10.6% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Netflix Inc (NFLX) with a price target of $1,150 by December 2025 [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that NFLX shares have outperformed the S&P 500, driven by its defensive subscription model and streaming leadership amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. - Expectations for NFLX's upcoming Upfronts include updated Ad Tier Monthly Active Users (MAUs) projected to exceed 100 million, expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite internationally, and a focus on key live/sports content [1][15]. - The report projects significant growth in advertising revenue, estimating $3.0 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [1][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at +15.1% for 2025, with subscriber growth of +8.5% and an increase in Average Revenue per Member (ARM) of +2.1% [16]. - The report anticipates average growth rates of +13% for foreign exchange-neutral (FXN) revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, and +30% for free cash flow (FCF) in 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The 2025 content slate is expected to drive subscriber growth, with key releases including "Squid Game S3" and several returning series [16]. Market Position and Trends - NFLX is positioned as a key beneficiary of the ongoing disruption in linear TV, with a strong global subscriber base of over 300 million [10]. - The report notes that NFLX's ad-supported tier is expected to expand its subscriber base while generating high-margin incremental revenue [10]. - The streaming industry is rationalizing, and NFLX is expected to benefit from the proliferation of internet-connected devices and consumer preference for on-demand video [10]. Valuation Metrics - The December 2025 price target of $1,150 is based on approximately 38 times the estimated 2026 GAAP EPS of $30.46, which is a premium compared to mega-cap tech peers [11]. - The report indicates that NFLX's valuation is justified by its top-line growth and faster bottom-line growth compared to peers [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on the memory industry, indicating a W-shaped cycle rather than a V-shaped recovery [7][9]. Core Insights - The memory cycle is currently demand-led, characterized by stockpiling in the first half of the year and a payback period in the second half [1][2]. - Despite a strong recovery in memory stocks, the real demand outlook is deteriorating, particularly in the second half of 2025, with AI server strength unlikely to offset growth contraction [2][9]. - Pricing dynamics for DRAM and NAND are expected to show initial strength in the second quarter of 2025 but are likely to decline in the latter half of the year [3][10]. Summary by Sections Memory Pricing - DRAM contract prices are tracking +5% in 2Q25, with DDR4 prices up 20% due to stockpiling ahead of year-end production phase-outs [3][10]. - NAND contracts are tracking +6% in 2Q25, +4% in 3Q25, and likely flat by 4Q25, assuming production cuts remain in effect [3][20]. Market Dynamics - HBM consumption has been reduced to 15.5 billion Gb from 18 billion Gb in 2025 due to inventory excesses and adjustments in product demand [4][27]. - The report anticipates a potential shortfall of 4 billion Gb in HBM supply for 2025 if Samsung cannot secure HBM4 orders in the second half of the year [4][30]. Stock Implications - The report suggests that memory stocks will continue to trade within a range, with DRAM appearing toppy after extreme volatility [5][9]. - Samsung is currently out of favor but is priced at cycle trough multiples, while Hynix is favored for its HBM leadership and is priced at a premium [5][31]. Tactical Considerations - The report favors HBM over commodity memory, highlighting robust AI demand as a positive factor [31][32]. - For DRAM, the report prefers stocks like Winbond and GigaDevice, while remaining cautious about overall pricing trends [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" industry view for the AI supply chain sector [6]. Core Insights - There are no cuts to NVIDIA's CoWoS-L booking, with a forecast of 390k units for 2025, despite speculation of reductions to 340-350k units [3][11]. - The newly announced AI company Humain in Saudi Arabia has a project size of US$10 billion to deploy 500 megawatts of AI compute capacity over five years, with NVIDIA's GB300 Grace Blackwell AI supercomputer being a key component [2]. - The report anticipates strong demand for NVIDIA's chips, with expected consumption of 160k CoWoS-L in 1H25 and over 100k in 3Q25, while assembly issues remain a concern [3][19]. Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain Overview - The AI supply chain is experiencing robust demand, particularly for NVIDIA's CoWoS-L chips, with no expected cuts in bookings [3][11]. - The report highlights the importance of assembly capabilities as a potential bottleneck in meeting demand [19]. Market Developments - The establishment of Humain in Saudi Arabia signifies a strategic investment in AI infrastructure, with a total project size of US$10 billion [2]. - The upcoming Computex event is expected to showcase significant developments, although the launch of NVIDIA/MediaTek's WoA AI PC chip may be delayed due to software support requirements [5][31]. Chip Production and Forecasts - TSMC is projected to produce 5.1 million chips in 2025, with a breakdown of shipments expected for various NVIDIA products [9][19]. - The report outlines a detailed forecast for CoWoS bookings, with specific allocations for NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, indicating a strong growth trajectory for AI semiconductors [12][14]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The report notes that US AI capital expenditure remains strong, with expectations of continued investment from major cloud service providers, potentially reaching around US$160 billion in AI server TAM for 2025 [36]. - The top four US hyperscalers are forecasted to generate US$550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [36][45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [4]. Core Insights - The financial system cycle in China is showing signs of bottoming, supported by government bond issuance and a review of local government financing [2][4]. - Total Social Financing (TSF) growth rebounded to 8.7% year-on-year in April 2025, driven primarily by government bonds, which saw a growth of 20.9% year-on-year [7][10]. - Corporate bond net issuance increased year-on-year in April 2025, reversing a decline from the previous year due to stricter controls on Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) [7][10]. Summary by Sections TSF and Loan Growth - TSF growth is expected to moderate in the latter half of 2025 due to reduced government bond support and more rational loan extensions by banks [2]. - New TSF in April 2025 was Rmb1.16 trillion, a significant increase from a negative figure in April 2024 [7]. - RMB loans recorded a growth of 7.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating stability since January [7]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Year-to-date government bonds added Rmb4.85 trillion, up Rmb3.58 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in issuance [10]. - A broad-based review of the quality of projects supported by special local government bonds led to a slowdown in issuance in the first half of 2024, but a resumption of normal issuance is expected for 2025 [7][10]. Deposits and Financial Stability - Household deposit growth remained high at 10.7% year-on-year, while corporate deposit growth recovered to 2.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stabilizing financial environment [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the clean energy sector, but it indicates a generally positive outlook for power demand and potential positive revisions based on upcoming policy clarity [1][7]. Core Insights - Overall power demand trends remain solid post-DeepSeek, with companies like GEV and ENR reporting strong orders and visibility, supported by capital expenditure guidance from hyperscalers [2]. - Recent slowdowns in renewables order activity are attributed to tariff and policy uncertainties, particularly affecting energy storage projects [1][3]. - Anticipation of clarity regarding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could positively influence investor sentiment and stock ratings as legislative discussions progress [7]. Summary by Sections Power Demand - Power demand is robust, with utility-scale product companies and developers reporting solid pipelines, although residential demand has weakened, as seen in the results from ENPH and GNRC [2]. Tariff Uncertainty - Companies have adjusted guidance based on current tariffs, with a universal 10% and a China-specific 145% tariff impacting outlooks. FSLR has updated its guidance to reflect potential punitive tariffs, while FLNC has seen significant negative revisions due to project delays [3][6]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include a tax equity market update webinar on May 12, a potential Ways and Means Committee update on May 13, and participation in the American Clean Power Conference on May 21 [8][10][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a tactical positioning that is most long GBP in G10 currencies [10]. Core Insights - Options pricing data shows that investors have reduced short USD (DXY) positions and increased long NOK (versus EUR) positions, while decreasing long NZD and SEK (versus EUR) positions [10][11]. - In the futures market, there is a reduction in short USD (DXY) and CAD positions, with an increase in short CHF and a decrease in long EUR positions [10][11]. - Overall, tactical investors are currently long GBP and AUD, while being short JPY and USD (DXY) [10][13]. - Positioning in the futures market indicates long positions in EUR and JPY, and short positions in CHF and NZD [10][13]. - Speculative USD (DXY) futures positioning remains slightly short at -7.63% of open interest, with sentiment on GBP deteriorating the most among G10 currencies [23]. Summary by Sections - **Options Data**: Investors have shifted to long GBP and AUD, while being short JPY and USD (DXY) as of May 9 [10][13]. - **Futures Market**: The positioning shows long EUR and JPY, and short CHF and NZD as of May 6 [10][13]. - **Sentiment Analysis**: The sentiment index indicates that JPY saw the largest improvement, while GBP sentiment deteriorated the most [23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns NVIDIA Corp. a stock rating of Overweight and identifies it as a Top Pick in the semiconductors sector [8][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent data from Taiwan indicates a significant increase in rack shipments, with approximately 1500 racks shipped in April 2025, which aligns with the firm's estimates and alleviates investor concerns [1][17]. - There is a noted shift towards ARM processors and liquid cooling in the ecosystem, driven by the adoption of NVIDIA's GB200 technology, which is expected to enhance revenue growth estimates for 2025 by 50-100% [3][11]. - The report emphasizes that the current supply chain challenges are manageable, and improvements in rack shipments should positively impact NVIDIA's stock performance [22][24]. Summary by Sections Shipment Data - The Taiwan ODM team reported close to 1500 racks shipped in April 2025, an increase from 1000 in the first quarter, suggesting a positive trend in production [1][17]. - The report anticipates that if the current monthly shipment rate continues, NVIDIA could reach approximately 15,000 racks by the end of the year, which is a significant improvement [18][20]. Financial Projections - The report projects NVIDIA's revenue to grow significantly, with GAAP revenue estimates of $130.5 billion for 2025 and $190.8 billion for 2026, reflecting strong demand in the data center business [38]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from $2.99 in fiscal year 2025 to $4.09 in 2026, indicating robust growth potential [8][38]. Market Position - NVIDIA's competitive position is expected to strengthen with broader availability of Blackwell products later in 2025, driven by increased demand for AI/ML hardware solutions [30][34]. - The report notes that NVIDIA's data center business is likely to be a key growth driver over the next five years, fueled by enthusiasm for generative AI [30][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies including Structure Therapeutics Inc (GPCR), Gilead (GILD), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), and Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) [1][2][10][30]. Core Insights - The biotechnology industry in North America is viewed as attractive, with several companies showing strong growth potential and upcoming catalysts [10]. - Structure Therapeutics is focusing on oral medications for obesity, with their Aleniglipron (oral GLP-1) positioned as a key product in development [40][42]. - Gilead is confident in its long-acting treatment strategy for HIV prevention, with multiple potential approvals expected by 2033 [19][23]. - Neurocrine Biosciences is experiencing momentum with Ingrezza and Crenessity, both of which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [2][27]. - Amgen's Maritide is highlighted for its competitive profile in diabesity, with upcoming data presentations expected to reinforce its efficacy [11][12]. Summary by Company Structure Therapeutics Inc (GPCR) - Price target increased from $118.00 to $120.00, reflecting confidence in their oral GLP-1 candidate Aleniglipron [1]. - The company aims to have a partner for Aleniglipron prior to commercialization, emphasizing the need for a best-in-class profile [42]. Gilead (GILD) - Management expressed confidence in LEN for HIV prevention with a PDUFA date set for June 19, 2025, and a long-acting treatment strategy that includes both oral and injectable options [19][23]. - Seven potential approvals are anticipated by 2033, indicating a robust pipeline [23]. Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) - Management is optimistic about Ingrezza's patient starts and the potential of Crenessity, which is believed to have blockbuster potential [2][27]. - The company reiterated its revenue guidance for Ingrezza at $2.5-2.6 billion for 2025 [27]. Amgen (AMGN) - Maritide's competitive profile for diabesity was discussed, with management highlighting key efficacy metrics and upcoming data presentations [11][12]. - The company is confident in managing potential discontinuations in clinical trials based on prior experience [11]. Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) - Management noted that three blockbuster products are driving current growth, with 11 near-term catalysts expected [2][30]. - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to M&A opportunities while evaluating organic growth [32]. Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) - Management highlighted an inflection point for Daybue, with significant growth in sales and a reduction in discontinuations [37][38]. - The company expects to accelerate growth through better patient engagement and community outreach [38]. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) - Management emphasized the transition to a fully integrated company with favorable early launch trends for its products [8][34]. - The company is preparing for a potential launch of donidalorsen in HAE later this year [34]. Cytokinetics (CYTK) - Management reiterated expectations for a differentiated label for aficamten in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, with a PDUFA date extended to December 26, 2025 [9][31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Apple, Inc. with a price target of $235.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of $198.53 [5]. Core Insights - The report discusses the dual nature of concerns regarding Apple's Services business, highlighting both vulnerabilities and potential overreactions from the market. Legal challenges and changing search habits pose risks to Apple's digital advertising revenue, which exceeds $20 billion, putting over 50% of its highest-margin Services at risk. However, investor sentiment has turned negative despite historical outperformance during this period [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming catalysts, including potential improvements in US/China trade relations and the upcoming WWDC event, which could influence investor sentiment and performance [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - Apple's current market capitalization is approximately $2,978 billion, with a 52-week price range of $260.10 to $169.21. The projected EPS for FY26 is $7.69, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 34.5 in FY24 to 23.0 in FY27 [5][36]. Services Business Analysis - The Services segment has historically compounded at a 16% annual growth rate over the past five years, with gross margins expanding from 60.8% in FY18 to 75.4% in the first half of FY25. However, recent legal developments and regulatory pressures could jeopardize this growth, particularly concerning the App Store and Google TAC, which together account for a significant portion of Services revenue [20][22]. - The report outlines a "Bull Case" where Apple maintains its role as a key search gatekeeper, leveraging its large user base for monetization, while the "Bear Case" suggests that disruptions in traditional search could lead to significant revenue losses [8][12][16]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Apple's stock may remain range-bound in the short term due to various market forces, including geopolitical tensions and Services risks. The tactical floor for the stock is estimated at $170, with a ceiling around $230 [23]. - Long-term growth opportunities in AI, AR/VR, and other emerging markets are highlighted as potential drivers of future revenue, which the market may currently be undervaluing [12][20].