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国防军工行业周报：继续战略看多航天精导产业链，十四五末需求拐点已至
兴业证券·2025-02-25 00:55

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to be bullish on the aerospace precision-guided industry chain, indicating that the demand inflection point is approaching by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - From February 10 to February 21, 2025, the defense and military industry (CITIC) index rose by 2.20%, ranking 15th among 30 primary industry indices, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.08 percentage points and matching the performance of the CSI 300 Index, while underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.73 percentage points [4][11] Market Performance - The CITIC defense and military index increased by 1.66% over the last five trading days (February 17 to February 21), while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% and the ChiNext Index by 2.99% [17] - Year-to-date (as of February 21, 2025), the CITIC defense and military index has risen by 0.17%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.65 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 6.36 percentage points [17] Company Performance and Earnings Forecast - As of February 21, 2025, among 219 military stocks, 144 have released their 2024 earnings forecasts or reports, with 18 stocks showing an increase of over 100%, and 12 stocks showing an increase between 50% and 100% [5][11] - The report categorizes 111 military products with over half of their revenue/profit, with 65 stocks having released forecasts, showing median changes of -72.58% for upstream, -79.76% for midstream, and -85.51% for downstream [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Feilihua, Aerospace Electronics, and others as potential investment opportunities [8][15] Financing Balance - The current financing balance of the military sector accounts for 3.55% of the sector's circulating market value, which is 1.17 percentage points higher than the overall A-share market [25][26] Recent Company Listings - The report tracks new listings in the military sector since June 2023, including companies like Aerospace Huanyu and Guoke Military Industry, with varying market performances [23]