有色金属行业周报：美国延续强势购金，大宗商品价格如期回调

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent strong gold prices are primarily driven by robust gold purchasing behavior in the U.S., with Comex gold inventory increasing by 500 tons to 1181 tons since the beginning of 2025, marking a 73% increase [1] - The report anticipates a short-term price correction for base metals due to the easing of sanctions on Russian commodities as the Russia-Ukraine conflict trends towards resolution, while medium-term demand for base metals is expected to strengthen due to EU interest rate cuts and post-war reconstruction efforts in the region [1] - The report highlights that gold prices are expected to continue rising due to liquidity easing and inflation expectations, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to improved macro sentiment and tariff concerns, with the report suggesting attention to companies like Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [3] - Copper prices are experiencing weakness, with a focus on monitoring end-demand recovery as a key factor for future price movements, while the report suggests potential opportunities in companies like Jincheng Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight decrease, but the report notes that the supply-demand balance remains under pressure, recommending attention to companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Yongxing Materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking above $2950 per ounce, driven by heightened risk aversion and U.S. economic data showing mixed signals [2] - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in gold prices due to monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization, suggesting investment in gold-related stocks [2] Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices are rising due to stable production and increased downstream demand, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector recovering to nearly 3000 yuan/ton [3] - Copper prices are under pressure, with domestic inventory accumulation indicating weak demand, while external supply remains tight [4] Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to increase as lithium salt plants resume operations [5][6] Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a decline of 1.52%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48 percentage points [21]