食品饮料行业周报：酒企积极停货稳价，政策驱动内需复苏

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in market expectations and a gradual improvement in demand within the food and beverage sector, particularly noting the positive sales performance during the Spring Festival [3][4]. - It emphasizes the ongoing transformation in the industry, with a focus on premiumization and the increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products, suggesting that companies with upgraded product structures and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel penetration should be monitored [4][6]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.09% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.91 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 first-level sectors [6][9]. - Sub-sectors such as liquor and dairy performed relatively well, with increases of 0.49% and 0.25%, respectively [6][9]. - The top five performing stocks included Zhuangyuan Pasture (+11.85%), Qinghai Spring (+10.47%), and others, while the worst performers included Ximai Food (-5.18%) and Weizhi Flavor (-5.30%) [6][9]. Liquor Sector Dynamics - Liquor companies are actively managing supply and pricing, with several firms halting orders and shipments to stabilize prices. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu have announced supply suspensions for certain products [6][9]. - The report notes that the basic fundamentals of the liquor sector have bottomed out, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery [6][9]. Beer Sector Insights - The beer sector is anticipated to benefit from policy-driven consumption recovery, with recent initiatives like restaurant consumption vouchers expected to stimulate demand [6][9]. - Cost trends are projected to stabilize, with barley prices expected to decline and glass prices remaining low, contributing positively to profitability [6][9]. Snack and Food Supply Chain - The snack segment is experiencing diversification in channels, with new retail formats driving growth. The report suggests that the innovation in snack products is meeting diverse consumer needs [6][9]. - The restaurant supply chain is also expected to recover, with a focus on cost control amid rising operational costs [6][9]. Dairy Sector Outlook - The dairy sector is seeing improved demand driven by policy support, with room for increased market penetration. The report highlights the importance of product structure upgrades and DTC channel growth in this sector [6][9].