KUAISHOU(01024) 东方证券·2025-02-25 01:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 76.03 HKD per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's AI capabilities, particularly the KuaLing model, show significant improvement, with a 195% enhancement in overall performance from version 1.5 to 1.6, indicating strong commercial potential and business empowerment [1]. - The company is experiencing healthy traffic growth, with a projected 4.01 billion daily active users (DAU) in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - The e-commerce sector is expected to see a 14% year-over-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival, driven by both supply and demand factors [2]. - The advertising revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-over-year, supported by external advertising cycles [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company expects total revenue in Q4 2024 to reach approximately 357 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is estimated at around 45.4 billion CNY, with an adjusted profit margin of 12.7% [5]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve by 1.1 percentage points year-over-year to 54.2% in Q4 2024 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 175.51 billion CNY, 201.14 billion CNY, and 243.24 billion CNY, respectively [3][10]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 127.19 billion CNY in 2024 to 141.03 billion CNY in 2025, and further to 153.44 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 12.1%, 10.9%, and 8.8% [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is actively enhancing its AI capabilities and integrating external large model technologies, which are expected to improve content delivery and advertising efficiency [1]. - The report highlights the importance of the company's ongoing commercial exploration and product integration efforts, particularly in the e-commerce and advertising sectors [1][2].